News
and Media
WEEKLY MARKET RECAP,
WEEK AHEAD, AND SCHEDULE
Mandus Invest SA. | 13, April, 2008
/ Sunday
EURO
The euro appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week
as the single currency tested offers around the $1.5915 level
and was supported around the $1.5625 level. The pair established
a new lifetime high and gained 85 pips. G7 officials may verbally
intervene against disorderly exchange rates in their communiqué.
Kuwait may repeg its currency to the U.S. dollar. FOMC minutes
revealed a “substantial easing” was warranted, saw a deterioration
in business and consumer spending, and some policymakers foresaw
a “prolonged and severe economic downturn.” Inflation hawks
warned inflation expectations could “become less firmly anchored.”
Paulson said the economy has “turned down sharply.”
Buba’s Zeitler sees 2008 German GDP growth “around 1.5%.”
Germany’s Mirow said the G7 will discuss exchange rates. The
ECB kept interest rates unchanged. Trichet said policymakers’
sentiment is “unchanged” from 6 March and added policymakers
“deplore” excessive currency volatility. DIW sees Q2 GDP growth
at 0.4%.
Data released in the U.S. last week February pending home
sales off 21% y/y; February wholesale sales were off 0.8%
with inventories up 1.1%; weekly initial jobless claims fell
53,000 to 357,000 with continuing claims up 3,000 to 2.94
million; the February trade deficit expanded 5.7% o US$ 62.3
billion; the mid-April University of Michigan consumer sentiment
index fell to 63.2; and March import prices were up 2.8% m/m
and 14.8% y/y.
Data released in the eurozone last week saw German industrial
output up 0.4% m/m and 1.1% y/y; German manufacturing output
was up 0.3%; German Q1 GDP growth registered 0.6% q/q with
EMU-13 GDP growth up 0.4% q/q; and German March wholesale
prices were up 1.6% m/m and 7.1% y/y
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was a
new lifetime high and last week’s low (2) was above the 23.6%
retracement of the 1.4309-1.5915 range. The 1.5854/ 1.5903/
1.6072 levels represent upside resistance targets while the
1.5527/ 1.5393/ 1.5219/ 1.5069/ 1.4979 levels represent downside
support targets.
CNY
The yen appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as
the greenback tested bids around the Y100.00 level and was
capped around the Y102.85 level. The pair lost about 60 pips
last week. The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 2.92% on Friday
to close at Y13,323.73. Shirakawa became the new BoJ Governor
as a compromise candidate and reported economic uncertainties
are “now high” and “some time” is needed to mend the global
financial markets. BoJ downgraded its April economic assessment
and failed to include the word “expansion” for the first time
since June 2006. A government survey of private economists
estimates the economy expanded an annualized 0.76% in Q1.
Data released in Japan this week saw the February leading
index of economic indicators rise to 50.0 from a revised 36.4
in January; the coincident index improved to 44.4 from 20.0;
Japan’s foreign reserves reached a record US$ 1.02 trillion
in March; the March economy watchers’ index improved to 36.9;
March corporate failures were up 20.5% m/m; March machine
tool orders rose 2.9% y/y; March bank lending was up 1.2%
y/y; March money supply was up 2.2% in March; the February
current account surplus expanded 2.9% in February; February
core private sector machinery orders were off 12.7% y/y; and
the March corporate goods price index rose 0.5% m/m and 3.9%
y/y.
In Chinese news, the Chinese yuan appreciated
vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 7.0065
in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 7.0175. The
pair fell below the psychologically-important CNY 7.00 figure
for the first time since the yuan revaluation of July 2005.
Goldman Sachs sees Q1 GDP growth around 10% with strong inflation
pressures. PBoC reported its ongoing monetary tightenings
have had positive results.
Data released in China last week saw the Q1 entrepreneur
confidence index improve to 140.6; 2007 GDP growth was revised
to 11.9%; foreign direct investment was up 61.26% to US$ 27.41
billion between January and March; Q1 consumer confidence
fell to 94.8; the March trade surplus rose to US$ 13.4 billion;
and foreign reserves reached US$ 1.68 trillion at the end
of March
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was right
at the 38.2% retracement of the 114.65-95.71 range and last
week’s low (2) was just below the 23.6% retracement of the
same range. Upside resistance targets remain the 102.94/ 104.91/
105.62/ 106.77/ 108.63 levels while downside support targets
remain the 100.18/ 98.00/ 95.04/ 94.41 levels.
GBP
The British pound depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.9660 level and
was capped around the $1.9950 level. The pair lost about 225
pips last week. Darling called on the G7 to lay our a “clear
and detailed plan of action” to counter market turmoil. PM
Brown reported the BoE could lower rates on account of low
inflation. BoE lowered the repo rate target by 25bps to 5.00%.
MPC officials see ongoing inflation risks that are outweighed
by a worsening of credit conditions and reduced credit availability.
NIESR estimates Q1 quarterly GDP growth reached 0.50% in the
U.K.
Data released in the U.K. last week saw Halifax March house
prices fall 2.5% m/m; CML February mortgage completions fell
to a record low 49,200; BRC shop prices were up 0.2% m/m and
1.1% y/y; February manufacturing activity was up 0.4% m/m
and 1.9% y/y; and UK REC wage inflation fell was at a 2.5-year
low in March.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 38.2% retracement of the 1.9336-2.0395 range and last
week’s low (2) was below the 61.8% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.9767/ 1.9866/
2.0033/ 2.0145 levels while downside support targets include
the 1.9602/ 1.9586/ 1.9336 levels.
CHF
The Swiss franc appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 0.9885 level
and was capped around the CHF 1.0170 level. The pair lost
about 70 pips last week. SNB’s Roth foresees a “major correction”
in oil prices and a decline in Swiss inflation in Q2. Roth
also said the franc’s recent strength has been a “correction
of the excesses of the past.”
Data released in Switzerland last week saw March unemployment
fall to 2.6% from 2.7% in February
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 23.6% retracement of the 1.1594-0.9647 range and last
week’s low (2) was below the 23.6% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.0106/ 1.0391/
1.0478/ 1.0620 levels while downside support targets include
the 0.9647/ 0.9605/ 0.9535 levels.
CAD
The Canadian dollar depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the greenback tested offers around the C$ 1.0235
level and was supported around the C$ 1.0040 level. The pair
gained about 135 pips last week.
Data released in Canada last week saw February building permits
fall 1.0%; March new home starts fell to 254,700 units; the
February trade surplus expanded to C$ 4.9 billion; and the
February new housing price index rose 6.2%.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 76.4% retracement of the 1.0378-0.9709 range and last
week’s low (2) was right around the 50.0% retracement of the
same range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.0220/
1.0378/ 1.0462 levels while downside support targets include
the 1.0122/ 1.0044/ 0.9965/ 0.9752 levels.
AUD
The Australian dollar appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.9340
level and was supported around the US$ 0.9175 level. The pair
gained about 65 pips last week.
Data released in Australia last week saw the February trade
deficit reach a record A$ 3.29 billion; February building
approvals were up 0.1% m/m; ANZ March job advertisements were
off 0.7% m/m; the March construction performance index was
off 5.5 points; the March NAB business confidence index fell
to lows not seen since September 2001; April Westpac consumer
sentiment weakened to its lowest level since June 1993; the
April leading employment indicator fell to -0.089; the March
unemployment rate rose to 4.1%; and April inflation expectations
fell to 4.3% from 4.6% in March.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 23.6% retracement of the 0.8511-0.9496 range and last
week’s low (2) was above the 38.2% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 0.9399/ 0.9496
levels while downside support targets include the 0.9120/
0.9003/ 0.8887/ 0.8744 levels.
SCHEDULE
Sunday, 13 April 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A NZ March QV house prices (7.7% y/y)
N/A Japan March Tokyo department store sales (2.8% y/y)
2245 NZ February retail sales (0.3% m/m)
2245 NZ February retail sales, ex-autos (0.3% m/m)
2350 Japan Bank of Japan Policy Board meeting minutes
Monday, 14 April 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A Japan March nationwide department store sales (0.9% y/y)
0000 NZ March performance of services index
0130 Australia February home loans (2.3%)
0130 Australia February investment lending (8.3%)
0630 France March Bank of France business sentiment (107.0)
0830 UK March producer price index, input (1.7% m/m)
0830 UK March producer price index, input (19.4% y/y)
0830 UK March producer price index, output (0.3% m/m)
0830 UK March producer price index, output (5.7% y/y)
0830 UK March producer price index, core output (0.2% m/m)
0830 UK March producer price index, core output (3.0% y/y)
0900 Eurozone February industrial production (0.9% m/m)
0900 Eurozone February industrial production (3.8% y/y)
1230 US March advance retail sales (-0.6%)
1230 US March retail sales, ex-autos (-0.2%)
1400 US February business inventories (0.8%)
2245 NZ March food prices (0.8% m/m)
2245 NZ Q1 consumer prices (1.2% q/q)
2245 NZ Q1 consumer prices (3.2% y/y)
2301 UK March BRC retail sales monitor
2301 UK March RICS house price balance (-64.1%)
Tuesday, 15 April 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0400 Japan March Tokyo condominium sales (-28.0% y/y)
0600 Eurozone European Central Bank President Trichet speaks
0645 France March consumer price index (0.2% m/m)
0645 France March consumer price index (2.8% y/y)
0645 France March consumer price index, harmonized (0.2% m/m)
0645 France March consumer price index, harmonized (3.2% y/y)
0800 Italy March CPI, harmonized
0830 UK March consumer price index (0.7% m/m)
0830 UK March consumer price index (2.5% y/y)
0830 UK March consumer price index, core (1.2% y/y)
0830 UK March retail price index (0.8% m/m)
0830 UK March retail price index (4.1% y/y)
0830 UK February DCLG house prices (8.0% y/y)
0900 Germany April ZEW survey, economic sentiment (-32.0)
0900 Germany April ZEW survey, current situation (32.1)
0900 Eurozone April ZEW survey, economic sentiment (-35.0)
1130 US March producer price index (0.3% m/m)
1130 US March producer price index (6.4% y/y)
1230 US March producer price index, ex-food and energy (0.5%
m/m)
1230 US March producer price index, ex-food and energy (2.4%
y/y)
1230 US April Empire manufacturing index (-22.2)
1300 US February net long-term TIC flows (US$ 62.0 billion)
1300 US February total net TIC flows (US$ 37.4 billion)
1500 Germany European Central Bank members Trichet and Weber
speak
1700 US April NAHB housing market index (20.0)
1730 Greece European Central Bank member Papademos speaks
Wednesday, 16 April 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0030 Australia February Westpac leading index (0.0% m/m)
0600 Japan March machine tool orders
0600 Greece European Central Bank member Garganas speaks
0600 Germany March consumer price index (0.5% m/m)
0600 Germany March consumer price index (3.1% y/y)
0600 Germany March consumer price index, harmonized (0.5%
m/m)
0830 UK March claimant count rate (2.5%)
0830 UK March jobless claims, net chance (-2,800)
0830 UK February average earnings, bonus (3.7%)
0830 UK February ILO unemployment rate (5.2%)
0900 Eurozone March consumer price index (0.3% m/m)
0900 Eurozone March consumer price index (3.3% y/y)
0900 Eurozone March consumer price index, core (1.8% y/y)
1100 US MBA mortgage applications
1230 US March consumer price index (0.0% m/m)
1230 US March consumer price index (4.0% y/y)
1230 US March CPI, ex-food and energy (0.0% m/m)
1230 US March CPI, ex-food and energy (2.3% y/y)
1230 US March housing starts (1.065 million)
1230 US March building permits (984,000)
1230 Canada February manufacturing shipments (1.3% m/m)
1315 US March industrial production (-0.5%)
1315 US March capacity utilization (80.4%)
1630 US Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Plosser speaks
1800 US Federal Reserve Beige Book
2350 Japan Foreign equities and bonds purchases
Thursday, 17 April 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0130 Australia March balance of payments imports (0.3% m/m)
0430 Japan February industrial production (-1.2% m/m)
0430 Japan February industrial production (4.2% y/y)
0430 Japan February capacity utilization (-2.5% m/m)
0700 Germany Economic institutes economic growth forecast
0715 CH February retail sales (1.3% y/y)
0800 Eurozone April European Central Bank monthly report
0900 Eurozone February trade balance (-€10.7 billion)
0900 CH April ZEW survey, expectations (-71.7)
1100 Canada March consumer price index (0.4% m/m)
1100 Canada March consumer price index (1.8% y/y)
1100 Canada March consumer price index, core (0.5% m/m)
1100 Canada March consumer price index, core (1.5% y/y)
1230 US Weekly initial jobless claims
1230 US Continuing jobless claims
1345 US Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Kohn speaks
1400 US April Philadelphia Federal Reserve manufacturing index
(-17.4)
1400 US March leading indicators (-0.3%)
Friday, 18 April 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0130 Australia Q1 import price index (0.2% q/q)
0130 Australia Q1 export price index (-0.6% q/q)
0500 Japan March consumer confidence (36.4)
0600 Germany March producer prices (0.7% m/m)
0600 Germany March producer prices (3.8% y/y)
0800 Italy February industrial orders (2.6% m/m)
0800 Italy February industrial orders (6.9% y/y)
0800 Italy February industrial sales (4.6% m/m)
0800 Italy February industrial sales (6.1% y/y)
0830 UK March public sector net cash requirement (£2.9 billion)
0830 UK March public sector net borrowing (£2.7 billion)
0830 UK March M4 money supply
0830 UK March M4 sterling lending
0900 Eurozone February construction output (1.6% m/m)
0900 Eurozone February construction output (1.6% y/y)
1230 US Richmond Federal Reserve President Lacker speaks
1230 US Boston Federal Reserve President Rosengren speaks
1230 Canada March leading indicators (-0.3% m/m)
1230 Canada February wholesale sales (2.6% m/m)
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