News
and Media
WEEKLY MARKET RECAP,
WEEK AHEAD, AND SCHEDULE
Mandus Invest SA. | 20, April, 2008
/ Sunday
EURO
The euro depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week
as the single currency tested bids around the $1.5670 level
and was capped around the $1.5985 level. The pair established
a new lifetime high before declining 60 pips. The G7 acknowledged
recent “sharp fluctuations in major currencies” but traders
doubted the ability of policymakers to effect a concerted
intervention. Fed #2 Kohn sees a “liquidity backstop” for
primary dealers. Boston Fed’s Rosengren said the Fed needs
more information about discount window borrowers. Merrill
Lynch and Citigroup posted sizable Q1 losses and will slash
thousands of jobs. Philly Fed’s Plosser warned the Fed’s tools
are limited.
ECB’s Noyer said prices are “clearly outside our price stability
objective” while ECB’s Quaden saw inflation above 2% for months.
ECB’s Garganas, Trichet, and Tumpell-Gugerell see inflation
above 2.0% for some time. ECB’s Weber said the ECB may lift
its inflation forecast in June and said the ECB may need to
“act with determination.” Eurogroup’s Juncker verbally intervened
against the euro’s rise.
Data released in the U.S. last week saw March retail sales
rise 0.2% m/m and 2.0% y/y with the ex-autos component up
0.1%; the New York; March industrial production rose 0.3%
m/m and fell 0.5% q/q with capacity utilization at 80.5%;
March CPI was up 0.3% m/m and 4.0% y/y; March building permits
were off 5.8% with March housing starts off 11.9%; the NYFRB’s
Empire State manufacturing index rose to 0.63 in April; March
headline PPI was up 1.1% m/m with core up 0.2% m/m and 2.7%
y/y; February net foreign acquisition of long-maturity U.S.
securities totaled US$ 60.1 billion with monthly net TIC flows
at US$ 64.1 billion; the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey
fell to -24.9; and the March leading index climbed 0.1%.
Data released in the eurozone last week saw EMU-15 February
industrial output up 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y; EMU-15 PPI was
up 0.4% m/m and 3.1% y/y; EMU-15 March CPI was up 3.6% y/y
with core inflation up 2.0%; German March final CPI was up
0.5% m/m and 3.1% y/y; the German April ZEW business confidence
survey fell to -40.7; the EMU-15 trade surplus reached €800
million; EMU-15 April consumer confidence fell to -7; and
German March PPI was up 0.7% m/m and 4.2% y/y.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was a
new lifetime high and last week’s low (2) was above the 23.6%
retracement of the 1.4309-1.5983 range. The 1.5854/ 1.5903/
1.6072 levels represent upside resistance targets while the
1.5527/ 1.5393/ 1.5219/ 1.5069/ 1.4979 levels represent downside
support targets.
CNY
The yen depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as
the greenback tested offers around the Y104.75 level and was
supported around the Y100.30 level. The pair gained about
340 pips last week. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.58%
on Friday to close at Y13,476.45. BoJ Policy Board meeting
minutes spotlighted downside economic risks more. BoJ boss
Shirakawa said FX levels should reflect fundamentals. Economic
and Fiscal chief Ota sees U.S. economic risks increasing.
Nukaga sees a steady course for the management of Japan’s
foreign reserves. The government downgraded business conditions
and the U.S. economy. Shirakawa said corporate profits are
being reduced by energy and materials prices.
Data released in Japan this week saw March revised tool orders
up 3.3% y/y; Tokyo March condominium sales were off 17.8%
y/y with Osaka condominium sales off 26.6% y/y; February industrial
output climbed 1.6% m/m; March department store sales fell
1.2% y/y; and March consumer confidence rose to 36.7.
In Chinese news, the Chinese yuan appreciated
vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.9938
in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 7.0065. The
pair fell below the psychologically-important CNY 7.00 figure
for the first time since the yuan revaluation of July 2005.
China’s State Council said China will continue to tighten
monetary policy with “prudent” measures.
Data released in China last week saw the March consumer price
index rise 8.3%; Q1 GDP growth reached 10.6% with inflation
at 8.0%; and March property prices in 70 major cities were
up 10.7% y/y.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 50.0% retracement of the 114.65-95.71 range and last week’s
low (2) was right around the 23.6% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets remain the 105.18/ 106.77/
107.41/ 108.63 levels while downside support targets remain
the 102.94/ 100.18/ 98.00/ 95.04/ 94.41 levels.
GBP
The British pound appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.9995 level and
was supported around the $1.9600 level. The pair gained about
245 pips last week. BoE may swap mortgage-backed securities
for government bonds for up to three years. The BBA said banks
may have artificially fixed Libor too low. RBS may recapitalize
to the tune of £12 billion. BoE’s Bean said the sterling’s
real decline since August is equivalent to about a 3% decline
in the repo rate.
Data released in the U.K. last week saw March factory gate
prices rise 0.9% m/m and an annualized 6.2% y/y; the March
claimant count of unemployment fell 1,200 with the unemployment
rate lower to 2.5%; March CPI printed at 2.5%; BRC March like-for-like
retail sales were off 1.6% y/y; RICS March house prices fell;
February annual house price inflation decelerated to 6.7%
from 8.0% in January; and CML gross mortgage lending fell
8% y/y
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was right
around the 38.2% retracement of the 1.9336-2.0395 range and
last week’s low (2) was right around the 76.4% retracement
of the same range. Upside resistance targets include the 2.0033/
2.0145/ 2.0463 levels while downside support targets include
the 1.9866/ 1.9741/ 1.9602/ 1.9586/ 1.9336 levels.
CHF
The Swiss franc depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.0285
level and was supported around the CHF 0.9925 level. The pair
gained about 220 pips last week. SNB chief Roth pledged more
proactivity in the future about threats to the financial system.
SNB will inject up to US$ 6 billion in U.S. dollar liquidity
via repo auctions.
Data released in Switzerland last week saw the UBS business
cycle indicator print at 3.7% y/y in Q1 and at an estimated
3.0% y/y in Q2; February retail sales were up 7.6% y/y; and
the April ZEW expectations survey fell to -71.4
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was just
below the 23.6% retracement of the 1.2476-0.9647 range and
last week’s low (2) was below the 23.6% retracement of the
1.1594-0.9647 range. Upside resistance targets include the
1.0391/ 1.0478/ 1.0620 levels while downside support targets
include the 1.0106/ 0.9647/ 0.9605/ 0.9535 levels.
CAD
The Canadian dollar appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the greenback tested bids around the C$ 0.9985
level and was capped around the C$ 1.0275 level. The pair
lost about 150 pips last week.
Data released in Canada last week saw February manufacturing
shipments up 1.6%; core CPI was up 0.2% m/m and 1.3% y/y;
February wholesale sales fell 1.8% m/m; and March leading
indicators were unchanged m/m.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 76.4% retracement of the 1.0378-0.9709 range and last
week’s low (2) was just above the 38.2% retracement of the
same range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.0122/
1.0220/ 1.0378/ 1.0462 levels while downside support targets
include the 0.9965/ 0.9867/ 0.9752 levels.
AUD
The Australian dollar appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.9400
level and was supported around the US$ 0.9205 level. The pair
gained about 15 pips last week. Minutes from RBA’s board meeting
of 1 April indicate policymakers sees inflation falling more
quickly over the next 2-3 years.
Data released in Australia last week saw February housing
finance off 5.9% m/m; the Westpac February leading index rose
3.3%; February personal finance was up 0.9% m/m; March merchandise
imports rose 1.0% m/m; and Australian Q1 import prices were
up 2.7% q/q
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high high (1) was
above the 23.6% retracement of the 0.8511-0.9496 range and
last week’s low (2) was above the 38.2% retracement of the
same range. Upside resistance targets include the 0.9399/
0.9496/ 0.9582 levels while downside support targets include
the 0.9263/ 0.9120/ 0.9003/ 0.8887/ 0.8744 levels.
SCHEDULE
Sunday, 20 April 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
2301 UK April Rightmove house prices (0.8% m/m)
2301 UK April Rightmove house prices (5.0% y/y)
2350 Japan February tertiary industry index (0.7% m/m)
Monday, 21 April 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A NZ April AON inflation expectations
N/A CH Q1 real estate index family homes (339.6)
0130 Australia Q1 producer price index (0.6% q/q)
0130 Australia Q1 producer price index (2.8% y/y)
0500 Japan February leading economic index (50.0%)
0500 Japan February coincident index (44.4%)
0700 Japan March convenience store sales (1.2% y/y)
0715 CH March producer and import prices (0.2% m/m)
0715 CH March producer and import prices (3.6% y/y)
0730 Austria European Central Bank member Liebscher speaks
1230 France European Central Bank member Noyer speak
1230 Canada February international securities transactions
1330 US Chicago Fed President Evans speaks
1700 Eurozone European Central Bank member Papademos speaks
1730 US Federal Reserve Governor Kroszner speaks
1830 US Chicago Fed President Evans speaks
Tuesday, 22 April 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0500 Japan March supermarket sales (1.9% y/y)
0615 CH March trade balance (CHF 1.55 billion)
1300 Canada Bank of Canada interest rate decision
1400 US April Richmond Fed manufacturing index (6.0)
1400 US March existing home sales (5.03 million)
1400 US March existing home sales (2.9% m/m)
1400 US February house price index (-1.1% m/m)
2350 Japan March merchandise trade balance (Y966.2 billion)
Wednesday, 23 April 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0000 Australia April DEWR skilled vacancies (-2.2% m/m)
0130 Australia Q1 consumer prices (0.9% q/q)
0130 Australia Q1 consumer prices (3.0% y/y)
0130 Australia Q1 consumer prices, trimmed mean (1.0% q/q)
0130 Australia Q1 consumer prices, trimmed mean (3.4% y/y)
0645 France March consumer spending (1.2% m/m)
0645 France March consumer spending (3.7% y/y)
0700 France April PMI, manufacturing (51.9)
0700 France April PMI, services (57.3)
0730 Germany April PMI, services (51.8)
0730 Germany April PMI, manufacturing (55.1)
0800 Eurozone April PMI, manufacturing (52.0)
0800 Eurozone April PMI, services (51.6)
0800 Italy February retail sales (0.2% m/m)
0800 Italy February retail sales (1.0% y/y)
0830 UK Bank of England MPC meeting minutes
0830 UK March BBA house purchase loans
0900 Eurozone February industrial new orders (2.0% m/m)
0900 Eurozone February industrial new orders (7.3% y/y)
1100 US MBA mortgage applications
1230 Canada February retail sales (1.5% m/m)
1230 Canada February retail sales, ex-autos (1.3% m/m)
2100 NZ Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision
2350 Japan Foreign purchases of Japanese equities and fixed-income
2350 Japan March corporate services prices (0.7% y/y)
2350 Japan February all-industry activity index (0.0% m/m)
Thursday, 24 April 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A UK April Nationwide house prices (-0.6% m/m)
N/A UK April Nationwide house prices (1.1% y/y)
0645 France April business confidence indicator (109.0)
0700 Germany 2008-2009 economic growth forecasts
0730 Italy April consumer confidence index (99.0)
0800 Eurozone February current account (-£10.6 billion)
0800 Germany April Ifo, business climate (104.8)
0800 Germany April Ifo, current assessment (115.5)
0800 Germany April Ifo, expectations (98.4)
0830 UK March retail sales (1.0% m/m
0830 UK March retail sales (5.5% y/y)
1000 UK April CBI quarterly industrial trends
1230 Germany European Central Bank members Trichet and Weber
speak
1230 US March durable goods orders (-1.7%)1230 US March durable
goods orders, ex-transportation (-2.6%)
1230 US Weekly initial jobless claims (372,000)
1230 US Continuing jobless claims (2.984 million)
1400 US March new home sales (590,000)
1400 US March new home sales (-1.8% m/m)
1430 Canada Bank of Canada monetary policy report
2330 Japan April Tokyo consumer price index (0.6% y/y)
2330 Japan April Tokyo CPI, ex-fresh food and energy (0.1%
y/y)
2330 Japan March consumer price index (1.0% y/y)
2330 Japan March CPI, ex-fresh food and energy (-0.1% y/y)
Friday, 25 April 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0600 Germany March import price index (1.1% m/m)
0600 Germany March import price index (5.9% y/y)
0730 Germany European Central Bank Weber speaks
0800 Eurozone March M3 money supply (11.3% y/y)
0830 UK Q1 GDP (0.6% q/q)
0830 UK Q1 GDP (2.8% y/y)
0830 UK February index of services (0.5%)
1300 US Former Treasury Secretary Rubin speaks
1400 US April University of Michigan consumer sentiment (63.2)
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