News
and Media
WEEKLY MARKET RECAP,
WEEK AHEAD, AND SCHEDULE
Mandus Invest SA. | 06, April, 2008
/ Sunday
EURO
The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar last week
as the single currency tested bids around the $1.5510 level
and was capped around the $1.5895 level. The pair lost about
55 pips last week. The Bush administration announced a sweeping
overhaul of the financial services industry, giving the Fed
broad new powers. Fed boss Bernanke warned the economy may
enter a recession in H1 and said the Fed is prepared to enact
more policy measures. May fed funds futures see either a 50bps
or 75bps rate cut on 30 April. Fed Governor Miskhin again
voiced support for inflation targets. San Francisco Fed President
Yellen warned the economy “could contract” in H1. G7 policymakers
will likely talk down FX volatility next week.
ECB’s Weber said it is “too early” to offer an all-clear on
the current financial crisis. Germany’s DIW sees 2008 German
GDP growth around 2.0%. ECB’s Trichet warned of “second-round”
inflation effects and said excessive FX volatility is “an
element of concern.”
Data released in the U.S. last week saw the March Chicago
PMI business barometer rise to 48.2 with the prices paid category
up to 83.9; the March jobless tally fell 110,000 to 3.057
million; March ISM manufacturing improved to 48.6; February
construction spending improved to -0.3%; February factory
orders were off 1.3% m/m with the ex-transportation component
off 1.8%; the ADP jobs report saw 8,000 private job gains
in February; weekly initial jobless claims rose 38,000 to
407,000; continuing jobless claims climbed 97,000 to 2.937
million; the March services ISM index improved to 49.6; March
non-farm payrolls were off 80,000 with the unemployment rate
up to 5.1%; and March average hourly earnings were up 0.3%.
Data released in the eurozone last week saw EMU-15 March
inflation print at 3.5%; the February M3 money supply was
up 11.3% y/y; the EMU-15 March economic sentiment indicator
fell to 99.6; German February wholesale sales were off 1.1%
m/m and up 7.5% y/y; EMU-15 February unemployment was unchanged
at 7.1%; EMU-15 March manufacturing PMI printed at 52.0; German
new machinery, plant orders were up 10.0% y/y; EMU-15 February
PPI was up 0.6% m/m and up 5.3% y/y; EMU-15 February retail
sales fell 0.5% m/m and 0.2% y/y; and EMU-15 March services
PMI printed at 51.6.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 23.6% retracement of the 1.4309-1.5903 range and last
week’s low (2) was right around the 23.6% retracement of the
same range. The 1.5854/ 1.5903/ 1.6072 levels represent upside
resistance targets while the 1.5527/ 1.5393/ 1.5219/ 1.5069/
1.4979 levels represent downside support targets.
CNY
The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar last week as
the greenback tested offers around the ¥102.85 level and was
supported around the ¥98.80 level. The pair gained about 250
pips last week. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.72% on Friday
to close at ¥13,293.22. The government expects the BoJ will
maintain its “basic thinking” on interest rates. Acting BoJ
Governor Shirakawa may be named as the permanent Governor
by next week’s G7 meeting. Finance chief Nukaga wants the
G7 to talk down sharp FX movements.
Data released in Japan this week saw monthly average earnings
up 1.3% y/y; February housing starts were off 5.0% y/y; February
industrial production was off 1.2% m/m and up 4.2% y/y; the
BoJ Tankan large manufacturers sentiment index fell to +11;
Japanese companies are forecasting a 5.3% decline in capital
investment plans in the fiscal year to March 2009; the March
monetary base was unchanged y/y; the BoJ consumer’ economic
sentiment survey worsened to –57.7; and foreign investors
were net sellers of Japanese shares for the sixth consecutive
week.
In Chinese news, the Chinese yuan depreciated
vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 7.0175
in the over-the-counter market, up from CNY 7.0120. PBoC suggested
it will continue to tighten monetary policy because “there
are evident upwards inflationary pressures.” Paulson said
it is “dangerous” if the yuan fails to follow fundamentals.
ICBC sees March CPI around 8.2%.
Data released in China last week saw February fixed-asset
investment up 24.3% y/y and the CFLP March manufacturing PMI
survey improved to 58.4.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was right
at the 38.2% retracement of the 114.65-95.71 range and last
week’s low (2) was below the 23.6% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets remain the 102.94/ 104.91/
105.62/ 106.77/ 108.63 levels while downside support targets
remain the 100.18/ 98.00/ 95.04/ 94.41 levels.
GBP
The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as cable tested offers around the US$ 2.0045 level and
was supported around the $1.9725 level. The pair gained about
10 pips last week. BoE Governor King the central bank can’t
let the economy slow too much but added inflation expectations
remain elevated. BoE MPC’s Sentance was reconfirmed as a member.
BoE reported tighter housing finance credit conditions and
higher default rates. MPC’s Tucker suggested the BoE will
loosen policy “gradually.” BoE’s MPC is expected to reduce
the repo rate this week by 25bps or 50bps.
Data released in the U.K. last week saw January service sector
output up 0.6% m/m; Q4 worked productivity climbed 1.7% y/y;
Q4 unit wage costs were up 2.7% y/y; Hometrack house prices
were off 0.2% m/m; Land Registry house prices in England and
Wales were unchanged m/m in February; Q4 profitability was
up 15.5%; CIPS March manufacturing was steady at 51.3; February
mortgage approvals were up 73,000; February net mortgage lending
growth was flat; February total net consumer lending expanded
£8.3 billion; Q4 housing equity withdrawal fell to £7.3 billion;
CIPS March construction PMI fell to 47.2; February final M4
money supply was off 0.2% m/m; and the March services PMI
index fell to 52.1.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was just
above the 38.2% retracement of the 2.1159-1.9336 range and
last week’s low (2) was just below the 23.6% retracement of
the same range. Upside resistance targets include the 2.0145/
2.0248/ 2.0463/ 2.0729 levels while downside support targets
include the 1.9741/ 1.9618/ 1.9586/ 1.9336 levels.
CHF
The Swiss franc depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.0165
level and was supported around the CHF 0.9870 level. The pair
gained about 70 pips last week. The Swiss government lifted
its 2008 inflation forecast to 1.7% from 1.6% and lowered
its 2009 GDP growth forecast to 1.5% from 1.7%. UBS announced
US$ 19 billion in write-downs. SNB’s Jordan said the global
financial market crisis will continue for some time and warned
monetary policy has limitations.
Data released in Switzerland last week saw March PMI fell
to 55.3 and March CPI was up 0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 38.2% retracement of the 1.1594-0.9647 range and last
week’s low (2) was below the 23.6% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.0314/ 1.0478/
1.0620 levels while downside support targets include the 0.9647/
0.9605/ 0.9535 levels.
CAD
The Canadian dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the greenback tested bids around the C$ 1.0010
level and was capped around the C$ 1.0325 level. The pair
lost about 175 pips last week. BoC’s Jenkins said growing
downside risks will likely result in more rate cuts from BoC.
Data released in Canada last week saw February manufacturing
prices off 0.1% m/m and February raw materials prices were
off 3.6% m/m.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 76.4% retracement of the 1.0378-0.9709 range and last
week’s low (2) was below the 50.0% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.0122/ 1.0220/
1.0378/ 1.0462 levels while downside support targets include
the 1.0044/ 0.9965/ 0.9752 levels.
AUD
The Australian dollar appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.9220
level and was supported around the US$ 0.9030 level. The pair
gained about 40 pips last week. RBA kept rates unchanged at
7.25% on slowing demand. RBA’s Stevens said the RBA will monitor
CPI on 23 April for new signals.
Data released in Australia last week saw February private
sector credit expanded 0.7% m/m and 15.5% y/y; the March TD
Securities monthly inflation gauge was up 4.0% in the twelve
months to March; February new home sales fell 5.3% m/m; the
March performance of services index rose to 53.8; and February
retails ales were off 0.1% m/m.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 38.2% retracement of the 0.8511-0.9496 range and last
week’s low (2) was above the 50.0% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 0.9263/ 0.9399/
0.9496 levels while downside support targets include the 0.9120/
0.9003/ 0.8887/ 0.8744 levels.
SCHEDULE
Sunday, 6 April 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
2330 Australia March performance of construction index (53.9)
Monday, 7 April 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A Japan March machine tool orders (-0.5% y/y)
0130 Australia February trade balance (-A$ 2.723 billion)
0130 Australia February building approvals (1.9% m/m)
0130 Australia February building approvals (5.1% y/y)
0130 Australia March ANZ job advertisements (-2.0% m/m)
0500 Japan February leading economic index (36.4%)
0500 Japan February coincident index (20%)
0545 CH March unemployment rate (2.7%)
0645 France February trade balance (-€3.4 billion)
0830 Eurozone April Sentix investor confidence (0.4%)
1000 Germany March industrial production (1.8% m/m)
1000 Germany March industrial production (6.9% y/y)
1230 Canada February building permits (-2.9% m/m)
1900 US February consumer credit (US$ 6.9 billion)
Tuesday, 8 April 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A NZ March REINZ house sales (-32.1% y/y)
N/A UK March RICS house price balance
0400 Japan Bank of Japan Policy Board meeting
0430 Japan March bankruptcies (8.3% y/y)
0500 Japan March economy watchers’ survey, current (33.6)
0500 Japan March economy watchers’ survey, outlook (39.5)
1215 Canada March housing starts (256,900)
1400 US February pending home sales (0.0% m/m)
1800 US Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes, 18
March
2301 UK March Nationwide consumer confidence (78)
Wednesday, 9 April 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A Japan Bank of Japan interest rate decision
0030 Australia April Westpac consumer confidence (-9.1%)
0130 Australia March NAB business confidence (-2)
0130 Australia March NAB business conditions (11)
0600 Japan February Bank of Japan monthly report
0600 Japan March machine tool orders
0600 Germany February trade balance (€17.1 billion)
0600 Germany February current account (€15.0 billion)
0830 UK February industrial production (-0.1% m/m)
0830 UK February industrial production (0.4% y/y)
0830 UK February manufacturing production (0.4% m/m)
0830 UK February manufacturing production (0.6% y/y)
0900 Eurozone Q4 GDP (0.4% q/q)
0900 Eurozone Q4 GDP (2.2% y/y)
0930 UK March BRC shop price index
1100 US April MBA mortgage applications
1400 US February wholesale inventories (0.8%)
2200 NZ Q1 NZIER business opinion survey
2301 UK March NIESR GDP estimate (0.5%)
2350 Japan February machine orders (19.6% m/m)
2350 Japan February machine orders (11.4% y/y)
2350 Japan March bank lending (0.8% y/y)
2350 Japan March M2+CD money supply (2.3% y/y)
2350 Japan March broad liquidity (3.5% y/y)
2350 Japan March current account (¥1.235 trillion)
2350 Japan February trade balance
2350 Japan Foreign stocks and bonds purchases
Thursday, 10 April 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses
0000 NZ March PMI (52.2)
0030 Australia April consumer inflation expectations (11.8%)
0130 Australia March employment change (36,700)
0130 Australia March unemployment rate (4.0%)
0645 France February industrial production (0.5% m/m)
0645 France February industrial production (2.7% y/y)
0645 France February manufacturing production (1.2% m/m)
0645 France February manufacturing production (3.1% y/y)
0800 Italy February industrial production (1.3% m/m)
0800 Italy February industrial production (0.5% y/y)
0830 UK February visible trade balance (-£7.503 billion)
1100 UK Bank of England MPC interest rate decision
1145 Eurozone European Central Bank interest rate decision
1230 US February trade balance (-US$ 58.2 billion)
1230 US Weekly initial jobless claims
1230 US Continuing jobless claims
1230 Canada February international merchandise trade
2350 Japan March domestic corporate goods price index (0.4%
m/m)
2350 Japan March domestic corporate goods price index (3.4%
y/y
Friday, 11 April 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses
1230 US March import price index (0.2% m/m)
1230 US March import price index (13.6% y/y)
1230 Canada March new housing price index (0.6% m/m)
1400 US April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index
(69.5)
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