News
and Media
WEEKLY MARKET RECAP,
WEEK AHEAD, AND SCHEDULE
Mandus Invest SA. | 10, February, 2008
/ Sunday
EURO
The euro depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week
as the single currency tested bids around the $1.4450 level
and was capped around the $1.4850 level. The pair lost about
310 pips last week. The ECB may be forced to reduce its 2008
GDP forecast. Germany’s Mirow said FX will be discussed at
the G7 meeting in Tokyo. The ECB kept its headline rate at
4.00%. Trichet reported there is “strong upward pressure on
inflation short-term” and said anchoring inflation expectations
is the highest priority but conceded uncertainty over growth
remains “unusually high.” ECB’s Liebscher said the ECB must
fight the “causes” of inflation. ECB’s Liikanen reported uncertainty
will remain “during the first half of year.” Atlanta Fed’s
Lockhart sees trend growth in H2. Wal-mart and other U.S.
retailers reported a weak January. San Francisco Fed’s Yellen
is “not confident” a U.S. recession can be avoided. ECB’s
Garganas said “it is not possible” to know when the credit
markets turmoil will end. ECB’s Gonzalez-Paramo said a “big
risk” of price rises remains but said economic uncertainty
is “unusually high.”
Data released in the U.S. last week saw the ISM non-manufacturing
index printed at a weak 41.9; Q4 non-farm productivity climbed
+1.8% and unit labour costs were up 2.1%; weekly initial jobless
claims were off 22,000 to 356,000 with continuing jobless
claims at a two-year high of 2.785 million; December pending
home sales were off 1.5% m/m and 24.2% y/y; and December wholesale
inventories were up 1.1%.
Data released in the eurozone last week saw EMU-13 PPI up
+0.1% m/m and +4.3% y/y; EMU-13 December retail sales were
off 0.1% m/ and 2.0% y/y; EMU-15 January services PMI printed
at 50.6; German December machinery, plant new orders were
up 14% y/y; German manufacturing orders fell 1.7% in December;
and December industrial output was up 0.8% m/m.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 76.4% retracement of the 0.9399-0.8511 range and last
week’s low (2) was below the 50.0% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 0.9060/ 0.9114/
0.9223/ 0.9340/ 0.9420 levels while downside support targets
include the 0.8851/ 0.8740/ 0.8549/ 0.8332 levels.
CNY
The yen depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as
the greenback tested offers around the Y107.70 level and was
supported around the Y106.50 level. The pair gained about
90 pips last week. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.70% to
close at Y13,017.24. Japan passed a US$ 16 billion supplementary
budget. Tokyo is hosting the G7 this weekend and policymakers
will likely speak against “disorderly volatility.”
Data released in Japan this week saw the December leading
economic index fall to 40.0 from 18.2 in November with the
coincident index at 66.7; January preliminary machine too
orders were off 1.0% y/y; Japan’s foreign reserves were a
record US$ 996.04 billion in January; the January economy
watchers’ index fell for the tenth consecutive month; December
core private sector machinery orders were off 3.2% m/m; and
January bank lending was up +0.5% y/y.
In Chinese news, Chinese yuan trading will resume after the
Chinese New Year holiday period.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 23.6% retracement of the 114.65-104.96 range and last
week’s low (2) was below the 23.6% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets remain the 108.66/ 109.80/
110.04/ 111.80/ 112.89 levels while downside support targets
remain the 107.25/ 104.19/ 101.67/ 101.20/ 98.65 levels.
GBP
The British pound depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.9390 level and
was capped around the $1.9785 level. The pair lost about 195
pips last week. BoE’s MPC reduced the repo rate by 25bps to
5.25% and noted a “sharp slowing in activity.” BoE’s quarterly
inflation report will be released this week.
Data released in the U.K. last week saw January PMI construction
fall to 53.9 from 56.0 in December; Halifax January house
prices were unchanged m/m; the CIPS January services PMI survey
printed at 52.5 and the prices charged index improved to 55.3;
the BRC January shop price index was up 1.2% y/y; Nationwide
January sentiment fell to +81; REC January demand for staff
fell to its weakest rates in 26 months with pay rises for
permanent staff at a 22-month low; December industrial production
fell; IDS pay awards averaged 4% in the three months to January,
up from 3.3% in the quarter to December; Q4 mortgage repossessions
in England and Wales were up 6% y/y; and NIESR reported U.K.
growth fell below trend in January.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was just
above the 23.6% retracement of the 2.1159-1.9336 range and
last week’s low (2) was above the 61.8% retracement of the
1.8089-2.1159 range. Upside resistance targets include the
1.9588/ 1.9767/ 1.9837/ 1.9937/ 2.0033/ 2.0149 levels while
downside support targets include the 1.9336/ 1.9262/ 1.9182/
1.9103/ 1.8618 levels.
CHF
The Swiss franc depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.1105
level and was supoported around the CHF 1.0860 level. The
pair gained about 160 pips last week. KOF reported Swiss companies
expect an industrial slowdown in the next three months and
sees H1 2008 economic growth decelerating.
Data released in Switzerland last week saw January unemployment
was unchanged at 2.8% and January CPI was off 0.3% m/m and
up 2.4% y/y.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 38.2% retracement of the 1.1594-1.0728 range and last
week’s low (2) was below the 23.6% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.1161/ 1.1215/
1.1304/ 1.1415/ 1.1594 levels while downside support targets
include the 1.0932/ 1.0740/ 1.0629/ 1.0532 levels.
CAD
The Canadian dollar depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the greenback tested offers around the C$ 1.0105
level and was supported around the C$ 0.9920 level. The pair
gained about 10 pips last week. Traders are monitoring a confidence
vote against the government regarding Canada’s role in Afghanistan.
Data released in Canada last week saw December building permits
rose 0.4% m/m; the January Ivey PMI survey improved to 56.2
from 45.9 in December; January employment was up 46,000 with
the employment rate at 5.8%; and January new housing starts
were up 21.0% m/m.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was just
above the 23.6% retracement of the 0.9063-1.0386 range and
last week’s low (2) was above the 38.2% retracement of the
same range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.0074/
1.0174/ 1.0462/ 1.0794/ 1.1204 levels while downside support
targets include the 0.9881/ 0.9747/ 0.9482/ 0.9300 levels.
AUD
The Australian dollar depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the Aussie tested bids around the US$ 0.8875
level and was capped around the US$ 0.9100 level. The pair
lost about 65 pips last week. RBA lifted its cash target rate
by 25bps to 7.00%. RBA’s Stevens said the global economy is
slowing and Oz’s economy is strong on account of commodity
demand.
Data released in Australia last week saw TD Securities January
underlying inflation up a record 4.0% y/y; the AIG January
performance of services index fell to 54.9; December building
approvals fell 16% m/m and 0.9% y/y; December retail sales
printed at 0.5%; NAB Q4 business confidence fell to 6.0; the
Q4 NAB small to medium-sized business conditions index improved
in Q4; and the January HIA construction index fell to 58.3.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 76.4% retracement of the 0.9399-0.8511 range and last
week’s low (2) was below the 50.0% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 0.9060/ 0.9114/
0.9223/ 0.9340/ 0.9420 levels while downside support targets
include the 0.8851/ 0.8740/ 0.8549/ 0.8332 levels.
SCHEDULE
Sunday, 10 February 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A NZ January QV house prices (10.0% y/y)
Monday, 11 February 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0030 Australia December home loans (4.0%)
0030 Australia January ANZ job advertisements (7.1% m/m)
0030 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia quarterly monetary
policy statement
0030 Australia December investment lending (-2.8%)
0745 France December industrial production (-1.5% m/m)
0745 France December industrial production (2.5% y/y)
0745 France December manufacturing production (-1.3% m/m)
0745 France December manufacturing production (2.3% y/y)
0900 Italy December industrial production (-2.4% y/y)
0930 UK January producer price index, input (0.5% m/m)
0930 UK January producer price index, input (11.3% y/y)
0930 UK January producer price index, output (0.5% m/m)
0930 UK January producer price index, output (5.0% y/y)
0930 UK January producer price index, core output (0.4% m/m)
0930 UK January producer price index, core output (2.5% y/y)
0930 UK December visible trade balance (-£7.377 billion)
0930 UK December total trade balance (-£4.371 billion)
0930 UK December DCLG house prices (9.50% u/u)
1330 Canada December new housing price index (0.50% m/m)
2300 US St. Louis Fed President Poole speaks
Tuesday, 12 February 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0001 UK January BRC retail sales monito
0030 Australia January NAB business confidence (5)
0030 Australia January NAB business conditions (17)
0745 France December current account (-€3.6 billion)
0930 UK January consumer price index (0.6% m/m)
0930 UK January consumer price index (2.1% y/y)
0930 UK January CPI, core (1.4% y/y)
0930 UK January retail price index (0.6% m/m)
0930 UK January retail price index (4.0% y/y)
0930 UK January RPIX (3.1% y/y)
1000 Germany February ZEW, economic sentiment (-41.6)
1000 Germany February ZEW, current situation (56.6)
1000 Eurozone February ZEW, economic sentiment (-41.7)
1605 US San Francisco Fed President Yellen speaks
2145 NZ Q4 producer prices, inputs (2.3% q/q)
2145 NZ Q4 producer prices, outputs (1.6% q/q)
2330 Australia February Westpac consumer confidence (-8.3%)
2350 Japan January domestic corporate goods price index (0.4%
m/m)
2350 Japan January domestic corporate goods price index (2.6%
y/y)
2350 Japan December current account total (Y1.782 trillion)
2350 Japan December trade balance (Y932.7 billion)
Wednesday, 13 February 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0430 Japan January bankruptcies (-1.0% y/y)
0500 Japan January consumer confidence (38.3)
0930 UK January claimant count rate (2.5%)
0930 UK January jobless claims change (-6,400)
0930 UK December average earnings, bonus (4.0%)
0930 UK December average earnings, ex-bonus (3.6%)
0930 UK December ILO unemployment rate (5.3%)
0930 UK December manufacturing unit wage cost (0.5%)
1000 Eurozone December industrial production (-0.5% m/m)
1000 Eurozone December industrial production (2.7% y/y)
1030 UK Bank of England quarterly inflation report
1200 US MBA mortgage applications
1300 Iceland European Central Bank member Stark speaks
1330 US January advance retail sales (-0.4%)
1330 US January advance retail sales, ex-autos (-0.4%)
1500 US December business inventories (0.4%)
2145 NZ January food prices (0.9% m/m)
2300 NZ January PMI (53.8)
2330 Australia February consumer inflation expectations (13.7%)
2350 Japan Q4 GDP (0.4% q/q)
2350 Japan Q4 GDP, annualized (1.5%)
2350 Japan Q4 GDP deflator (-0.4% y/y)
2350 Japan Q4 GDP deflator (0.2% q/q)
Thursday, 14 February 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0030 Australia January employment change (20,100)
0030 Australia January unemployment rate (4.3%)
0400 Japan Bank of Japan Policy Board meeting
0400 Japan January Tokyo condominium sales (-20.2% y/y)
0400 Japan December industrial production (1.4% m/m)
0400 Japan December industrial production (0.7% y/y)
0400 Japan December capacity utilization (108.4)
0600 Japan January machine tool orders
0700 Germany Q4 GDP (0.7% q/q)
0700 Germany Q4 GDP (2.5% y/y)
0730 Finland European Central Bank member Liikanen speaks
0730 France January Bank of France sentiment (103)
0745 France Q4 GDP
0900 Eurozone February European Central Bank monthly report
1000 Eurozone Q4 GDP (0.7% q/q)
1000 Eurozone Q4 GDP (2.7% y/y)
1000 CH February ZEW survey, expectations (-32.7)
1330 US December trade balance (-US$ 63.1 billion)
1330 US Weekly initial jobless claims
1330 US Continuing jobless claims
1330 Canada December international merchandise trade
1615 Eurozone December current account (-€2.450 billion)
1700 Spain European Central Bank President Trichet speals
1830 US Chicago Fed President Evans speaks
2145 NZ December retail sales (2.0% m/m)
2145 NZ December retail sales, ex-autos (0.9% m/m)
2350 Japan Equities and fixed-income investments
Friday, 15 February 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0030 US Former Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan speaks
0500 Japan January nationwide department store sales (-2.3%
y/y)
0500 Japan January Tokyo department store sales (-1.6% y/y)
0500 Japan Bank of Japan Policy Board meeting
0500 CH December real retail sales (2.9% y/y)
0600 Japan Bank of Japan monthly report
0745 France Q4 non-farm payrolls
0745 France Q4 wages
1000 Eurozone December trade balance (€2.6 billion)
1045 Belgium European Central Bank members Quaden and Liikanen
speak
1330 US January import price index (0.0% m/m)
1330 US January import price index (10.9% y/y)
1330 US February Empire manufacturing index (9)
1330 Canada December manufacturing shipments (1.1% m/m)
1400 US December net long-term TIC flows (US$ 90.9 billion)
1400 US December total net TIC flows (US$ 149.9 billion)
1415 US January industrial production (0.0%)
1415 US January capacity utilization (81.4%)
1445 Spain European Central Bank President Trichet speaks
1500 US February University of Michigan consumer sentiment
(78.4)
1745 US Fed Governor Mishkin speaks
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