News and Media

WEEKLY MARKET RECAP, WEEK AHEAD, AND SCHEDULE
Mandus Invest SA. | 13, January, 2008 / Sunday

The euro appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the single currency tested offers around the $1.4820 level and was supported around the $1.4640 level. The pair gained about 30 pips last week. G10 officials see “robust global GDP” with downside risks. Fed boss Bernanke said the Fed is “ready to take substantive additional action as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks.” Kohn said there won’t be “unambiguous guidance” from the Fed for now. Philly Fed’s Plosser sees “further policy adjustments” but warned the “worrisome signs of underlying price pressures” are “more broad-based.” Atlanta Fed’s Lockhart said he is worried about inflation and “equally or more concerned” with the slowing economy.
The ECB kept its main refinancing rate unchanged at 4.0%. ECB’s Trichet sees no room for “complacency” on inflation and said he is “prepared to act preemptively.” He also confirmed policymakers discussed a rate hike. IG Metall is likely to pursue elevate wage negotiations. ECB’s Kranjec said the ECB’s hawkish rhetoric is “not empty talk.”

Data released in the U.S. last week saw November pending home sales fall 2.6% m/m and 19.2% y/y; November wholesale inventories were up 0.6%; and weekly initial jobless claims were of 15,000 to 322,000.

Data released in the eurozone last week saw the EMU-13 economic sentiment indicator fall to 104.7 in December; EMU-13 November PPI were up 0.8% m/m and 4.1% y/y; EMU-13 unemployment was unchanged at 7.2%; German manufacturing orders rose 3.4% m/m and 13.6% y/y; EMU-13 November retail sales were off 0.5% m/m and 1.4% y/y; the November trade deficit expanded 9.3% to US$ 63.1 billion while the December import price index grew 0% m/m and 10.9% y/y; German November industrial production was off 0.9% m/m and up 3.5% y/y; and EMU-13 Q3 GDP expanded 0.8% q/q.

Last week’s high (1) was right around the 76.4% retracement of the 1.4967-1.4309 range and last week’s low (2) was above the 50.0% retracement of the same range. The 1.4812/ 1.4908/ 1.4967/ 1.5030/ 1.5120 levels represent upside resistance targets while the 1.4716/ 1.4638/ 1.4560/ 1.4404/ 1.4378 levels represent downside support targets.

CNY

The yen depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the greenback tested offers around the Y109.80 level and was supported around the Y108.45 level. The pair gained about 20 pips last week. The Nikkei 225 stock index closed at Y14,110.79. BoJ may reduce current FY GDP growth forecasts to 1.3%. BoJ boss Fukui said central banks need to cooperate on account of globalization and economic shocks and also said the economy will slow “for the time being.” BoJ’s Muto said the “economic cycle is weakening” and will continue for some time. EPA private forecasts see H1 2008 GDP growth at an annualized 2.10 to 2.20%.

Data released in Japan this week saw the December monetary base up 0.4% y/y; the November leading economic index fell to 10.0; Japan’s foreign reserves reached a record US$ 973.6 billion in December; the economy watcher’s survey worsen to 36.6; and December bank lending rose 0.2% y/y.

The Chinese yuan appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the greenback closed at CNY 7.2620 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 7.2732. PBoC’s Zhou said the recent CNY appreciation reflects China’s trade surplus, rising inflation, and the high price of oil. China’s foreign reserves topped US$ 1.53 trillion at the end of 2007.

Data released in China last week saw the Q4 business climate index up 4.2% y/y; China’s foreign reserves topped US$ 1.53 trillion at the end of 2007; and China’s trade surplus was US$ 262.2 billion at the end of 2007.

Last week’s high (1) was right around the 23.6% retracement of the 117.92-107.20 range and last week’s low (2) was below the 76.4% retracement of the 107.20-114.65. Upside resistance targets remain the 108.96/ 109.73/ 110.04/ 111/80/ 112.89 levels while downside support targets remain the 107.20/ 106.53/ 104.19/ 101.67 levels.

£

The British pound depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.9480 level and was capped around the $1.9825 level. The pair lost about 170 pips last week. MPC kept its repo rate unchanged at 5.50%. CBI reported the financial services sector slowed considerably in Q4. Brown called for wage restraint while Chancellor Darling said he will decide if BoE boss King will get another term in the coming weeks.

Data released in the U.K. last week saw Halifax December house prices rise 1.3% m/m; the BRC December retail sales monitor saw like-for-like retail sales up a weak 0.3% y/y; the November goods-in-trade deficit remained steady at £7.4 billion; November industrial production was off 0.1% m/m; November manufacturing output was off 0.1% m/m; Nationwide consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since February 2007; and BRC December annual shop price inflation receded to 1.0%

Last week’s high (1) was below the 61.8% retracement of the 1.9182-2.1159 range and last week’s low (2) was below the 38.2% retracement of the 1.7047-2.1159 range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.9648/ 1.9837/ 1.9937/ 2.0007/ 2.0149 levels while downside support targets include the 1.9182/ 1.9103/ 1.8618 levels

CHF

The Swiss franc appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0975 level and was capped around the CHF 1.1190 level. The pair lost about 65 pips last week. U.S. warships were engaged by Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz, upping the risk of safe-haven buying.

Data released in Switzerland last week saw the December unemployment rate print at 2.8%.

Last week’s high (1) was below the 50.0% retracement of the 1.0885-1.1594 range and last week’s low (2) was below the 76.4% retracement of the same range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.1052/ 1.1123/ 1.1286/ 1.1323/ 1.1493/ 1.1680 levels while downside support targets include the 1.0885/ 1.0740/ 1.0629/ 1.0532 levels.

CAD

The Canadian dollar depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the greenback tested offers around the C$ 1.0220 level and was supported around the C$ 0.9965 level. The pair gained about 165 pips last week. BoC’s Dodge said the loonie’s appreciation is having a greater downward impact on the economy than previously anticipated.

Data released in Canada last week saw November building permits fell 9.9% with housing prices up 6.1%; the October trade surplus expanded to C$ 3.7 billion; the December unemployment rate was steady at 5.9%; and December housing starts were off 19.6%.

Last week’s high (1) was above the 61.8% retracement of the 1.0866-0.9055 range and last week’s low (2) was right around the 50.0% retracement of the same range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.0248/ 1.0438/ 1.0794 levels while downside support targets include the 1.0130/ 0.9966/ 0.9747/ 0.9482/ 0.9300 levels.

AUD

The Australian dollar appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.8970 level and was supported around the US$ 0.8680 level. RBA is expected to remain hawkish and possibly raise interest rates in Q1.

Data released in Australia last week saw November building approvals rise 8.9% m/m; November retail sales were stronger-than-expected; the November trade deficit narrowed to –A$ 2.25 billion; November retail sales were up 0.8% m/m; and job vacancies were up +6.0% q/q in November.

Last week’s high (1) was above the 38.2% retracement of the 0.9399-0.8549 range and last week’s low (2) was below the 23.6% retracement of the same range. Upside resistance targets include the 0.8992/ 0.9062/ 0.9114/ 0.9223/ 0.9340/ 0.9420 levels while downside support targets include the 0.8874/ 0.8740/ 0.8549/ 0.8332 levels.

SCHEDULE

Sunday, 13 January 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

N/A NZ December QV house prices (11.4% y/y)
2330 Australia December TD Securities inflation (0.3% m/m)
2330 Australia December TD Securities inflation (3.4% y/y)

Monday, 14 January 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

N/A Japan December Nationwide department sales (0.9% y/y)
N/A Japan December Tokyo-area department store sales (1.7% y/y)
0030 Australia December ANZ job advertisements (0.7% m/m)
0745 France November current account
0900 Italy November industrial production (-1.5% y/y)
0930 UK December PPI, input (1.7% m/m)
0930 UK December PPI, input (10.3% y/y)
0930 UK December PPI, output (0.5% m/m)
0930 UK December PPI, output (4.5% y/y)
0930 UK December PPI, core output (0.1% m/m)
0930 UK December PPI, core output (2.2% y/y)
0930 UK November DCLG house prices (11.3% y/y)
1000 Eurozone November industrial production (0.4% m/m)
1000 Eurozone November industrial production (3.8% y/y)
2100 NZ Q4 NZIER business opinion survey (-27)

Tuesday, 15 January 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0001 UK December RICS house price balance (-40.6%)
0745 France December consumer price index (2.4% y/y)
0745 France December CPI, harmonized (0.6% m/m)
0745 France December CPI, harmonized (2.6% y/y)
0815 Germany 2007 GDP growth rate (2.9%)
0900 Italy December CPI, harmonized (2.8% y/y)
0930 UK December CPI (0.3% m/m)
0930 UK December CPI (2.1% y/y)
0930 UK December CPI, core (1.4% y/y)
0930 UK December retail price index (0.4% m/m)
0930 UK December retail price index (4.3% y/y)
1000 Eurozone January ZEW survey, economic sentiment (-35.7)
1000 Eurozone January ZEW survey, current situation (63.5)
1330 US December producer price index (3.2% m/m)
1330 US December producer price index (8.2% y/y)
1330 US December PPI, ex-food and energy (0.4% m/m)
1330 US December PPI, ex-food and energy (2.0% y/y)
1330 US December advance retail sales (1.2%)
1330 US December retail sales, ex-autos (1.8%)
1330 US January Empire manufacturing (10.3)
1500 US November business inventories (0.1%)
2330 Australia January Westpac consumer confidence (1.8)
2350 Japan November machine orders (12.7% m/m)
2350 Japan November machine orders (3.3% y/y)
2350 Japan December domestic goods price index (0.2% m/m)
2350 Japan December domestic goods price index (2.3% y/y)
2350 Japan November current account (Y2.222 trillion)
2350 Japan November trade balance (Y1.154 trillion)

Wednesday, 16 January 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0030 Australia November home loans (-0.7%)
0030 Australia November investment lending (2.9%)
0600 Japan December machine tool orders (13.0% y/y)
0930 UK December claimant count rate (2.5%)
0930 UK December claimant count, change (-11,100)
0930 UK November average earnings, bonus (4.0% y/y)
0930 UK November ILO unemployment rate (5.3%)
1000 Eurozone EMU-13 December CPI (0.5% m/m)
1000 Eurozone EMU-13 December CPI (3.1% y/y)
1000 Eurozone EMU-13 December CPI, core (1.9% y/y)
1200 US MBA mortgage applications (32.2%)
1330 US December consumer price index (0.8% m/m)
1330 US December consumer price index (4.3% y/y)
1330 US December CPI, ex-food and energy (0.3% m/m)
1330 US December CPI, ex-food and energy (2.3% y/y)
1400 US November total net TIC flows (US$ 97.6 billion)
1415 US December industrial production (0.3%)
1415 US December capacity utilization (0.3%)
1500 Germany December CPI (0.5% m/m)
1500 Germany December CPI (2.8% y/y)
1500 Germany December CPI, harmonized (0.5% m/m)
1500 Germany December CPI, harmonized (3.1% y/y)
1800 US January NAHB housing market index (19)
1900 US Federal Reserve Beige Book
2145 NZ Q4 consumer prices (0.5% q/q)
2145 NZ Q4 consumer prices (1.8% y/y)
2145 NZ December food prices (0.4% m/m)
2330 Australia January consumer inflation expectations (14.2%)

Thursday, 17 January 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0000 Eurozone November trade balance (€4.0 billion)
0030 Australia December unemployment rate (4.5%)
0030 Australia December employment change (52,600)
0430 Japan November industrial production (-1.6% m/m)
0430 Japan November industrial production (2.9% y /y)
0430 Japan November capacity utilization
0430 Japan December bankruptcies (11.1% y/y)
0900 Eurozone January ECB monthly report
1000 Eurozone November trade balance (€6.1 billion)
1000 CH January ZEW, expectations (-29.7)
1330 US December housing starts (1.187 million)
1330 US December building permits (1.162 million)
1330 US Weekly initial jobless claims (322,000)
1330 US Continuing jobless claims
1330 Canada November international securities transactions
1500 US January Philadelphia Fed index (-1.6)
1645 US Dallas Fed President Fisher speaks
1815 US Atlanta Fed President Lockhart speaks
2145 NZ November retail sales (-0.7% m/m)
2145 NZ November retail sales, ex-autos (-1.1% m/m)
2350 Japan Net equities and bonds investment

Friday, 18 January 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)

0030 Australia Q4 import price index (-0.8% q/q)
0030 Australia Q4 export price index (-3.0% q/q)
0500 Japan December consumer confidence (40.0)
0900 Italy November industrial orders (8.4% y/y)
0930 UK December retail sales (0.4% m/m)
0930 UK December retail sales (4.4% y/y)
1000 Eurozone November construction output (0.6% m/m)
1000 Eurozone November construction output (2.4% u/u)
1300 US Richmond Fed President Lacker speaks
1320 UK Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens speaks
1330 Canada November manufacturing shipments (0.1% m/m)
1500 US January University of Michigan consumer sentiment (75.5)
1500 US December leading indicators (-0.4%)