News
and Media
WEEKLY MARKET RECAP,
WEEK AHEAD, AND SCHEDULE
Mandus Invest SA. | 13, July, 2008 /
Sunday
EURO
The euro appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week
as the single currency tested bids around the $1.5945 level
and was supported around the $1.5610 level. The pair gained
about 185 pips last week. Bush talked up the U.S. dollar.
San Francisco Fed’s Yellen said the Fed will prevent a wage-price
spiral. The G8 expressed “strong concern” about food and energy
prices. Fed boss Bernanke said the credit facility for primary
dealers may be extended “beyond year end.” Richmond Fed’s
Lacker said the FOMC may have to raise rates even if the economy
remains weak. The dollar was bloodied by a meltdown in U.S.
mortgage GSE giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, both of whom
require capitalizations. Fed boss Bernanke testified on Tuesday
and Wednesday.
ECB’s Juncker said the rate hike was a “signal” to wage
negotiators. ECB’s Papademos pledged to pursue price stability.
ECB’s Ordonzez warned of an inflation wage spiral. ECB’s Trichet
sees “worrying” inflation remaining elevated through 2009.
ECB’s Gonzalez said the ECB will do what is necessary. Germany’s
Steinbrueck sees “downside risks” to the German economy. Germany’s
IWH lifted its 2008 GDP forecast to 2.3%.
Data released in the U.S. last week saw the Conference Board
June employment index fall 0.6% to 111.9; May pending home
sales were off 4.7% m/m and 14% y/y; May wholesale inventories
were off 0.8%; the May trade balance was off 1.2% to –US$
59.8 billion from April’s –US$ 60.5 billion; and the University
of Michigan’s mid-July consumer sentiment indicator printed
at 56.6.
Data released in the eurozone last week saw May industrial
output off 2.4% m/m; EMU-15 Q1 GDP was downwardly revised
to 0.7%; Germany’s May trade surplus printed at €14.4 billion;
and German June wholesale prices were up 0.9% m/m and 8.9%
y/y.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 76.4% retracement of the 1.6018-1.5283 range and last
week’s low (2) was right around the 23.6% retracement of the
1.4309-1.6018 range. The 1.5903/ 1.6018/ 1.6122 levels represent
upside resistance targets while the 1.5837/ 1.5650/ 1.5563/1.5456/
1.5285 levels represent downside support targets.
CNY
The yen appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as
the greenback tested bids around the Y105.65 level and was
capped around the Y107.75 level. The pair lost about 70 pips
last week. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.21% on Friday
to close at Y13,039.69. G8 officials convened in Hokkaido.
BoJ Governor Shirakawa reported said the economy is slowing
and inflation is rising. BoJ’s Policy Board will likely keep
rates unchanged this week. The Nikkei reported the government
is expected to keep its economic assessment unchanged for
the fifth consecutive month.
Data released in Japan this week saw foreign reserves at
Y1.00 trillion in June; the economy watchers’ current conditions
index fell to 29.5 in June; June bank lending was up 2.0%;
the M2 money supply rose 2.3% in June; June corporate failures
were up 7.1%; June machine tool orders fell 2.7% y/y; May
machinery orders rose 10.4%; May revised industrial output
was up 2.8% m/m; and June consumer confidence fell to 32.6.
In Chinese news, the Chinese yuan appreciated vis-a-vis the
U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8340 in the over-the-counter
market, down from CNY 6.8589. ECB’s Trichet said the global
position on China’s FX regime is not ambiguous.
Data released in China last week saw Q2 consumer confidence
fall to 94.1
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 76.4% retracement of the 114.65-95.71 range and last week’s
low (2) was below the 61.8% retracement of the same range.
Upside resistance targets remain the 107.15/ 108.56/ 110.18/
112.66/ 114.65 levels while downside support targets remain
the 105.18/ 103.44/ 102.42/ 100.18 levels.
GBP
The British pound appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.9960 level and
was supported around the $1.9645 level. The pair gained about
65 pips last week. NIESR reported GDP growth will be around
0.2% in the three months to June. BCC sees a “serious risk”
of a technical recession by summer’s end. U.K. banks are expected
to ask BoE to extend its Special Liquidity Scheme to enhance
liquidity.
Data released in the U.K. last week saw May manufacturing
output fall 0.5% m/m and 0.8% y/y; April industrial production
fell 0.8% m/m and 1.6% y/y; the government house price measure
slowed to its lowest level in more than two years; CML May
house prices were up marginally in May; the May trade balance
was stable at -£7.5 billion; the BRC June shop price index
was up 2.5% y/y; and Nationwide June consumer confidence fell.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 50.0% retracement of the 2.1159-1.9336 range and last
week’s low (2) was above the 23.6% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 2.0033/ 2.0248/
2.0463 levels while downside support targets include the 1.9767/
1.9602/ 1.9395 levels.
CHF
The Swiss franc appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0135 level
and was capped around the CHF 1.0350 level. The pair lost
about 70 pips last week.
Data released in Switzerland last week saw June unemployment
fall to 2.3% from 2.4% in May.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 23.6% retracement of the 0.9647-1.0623 range and last
week’s low (2) was below the 50.0% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.0250/ 1.0393/
1.0623/ 1.0850/ 1.1134 levels while downside support targets
include the 1.0135/ 1.0020/ 0.9877/ 0.9647/ 0.9605 levels.
CAD
The Canadian dollar appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the greenback tested bids around the C$ 1.0065
level and was capped around the C$ 1.0230 level. The pair
lost about 95 pips last week. BoC reported prices will continue
rising in the next twelve months and added credit conditions
have tightened over the past three months.
Data released in Canada last week saw May building permits
were up 1.1% to C$ 6.54 billion; June housing starts were
off 4.3% to 217,800; May new house prices were up 4.1% y/y;
the May trade surplus widened to C$ 5.5 billion; and the June
unemployment rate printed at 6.2% with a net change of -5,000
in employment
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 76.4% retracement of the 1.0378-0.9709 range and last
week’s low (2) was above the 50.0% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.0202/ 1.0378/
1.0439/ 1.0797 levels while downside support targets include
the 1.0069/ 0.9965/ 0.9867/ 0.9752 levels.
AUD
The Australian dollar appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.9715
level and was supported around the US$ 0.9475 level. The pair
gained about 35 pips last week.
Data released in Australia last week saw the June construction
sector index fall to 40.3; the NAB overall business conditions
index fell to 0; May housing finance fell 7.9% m/m; July consumer
sentiment is at a 16-year low; and the leading employment
indicator fell to -0.060 in July.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was a
new multi-decade high and last week’s low (2) was above the
23.6% retracement of the 0.7673-0.9667 range. Upside resistance
targets include the 0.9712/ 0.9920/ 1.0053 levels while downside
support targets include the 0.9431/ 0.9394/ 0.9263/ 0.9120/
0.9003/ 0.8887 levels.
SCHEDULE
Sunday, 13 July 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
NA NZ June QV house prices (2.4% y/y)
2245 NZ May retail sales (1.0% m/m)
2245 NZ May retail sales, ex-autos
Monday, 14 July 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A Japan Bank of Japan interest rate decision
0000 NZ June performance of services index
0900 Eurozone May industrial production (0.9% m/m)
0900 Eurozone May industrial production (3.9% y/y)
2245 NZ June food prices (1.0% m/m)
2245 NZ Q2 consumer prices (0.7% q/q)
2245 NZ Q2 consumer prices (3.4% y/y)
2301 UK June BRC retail sales monitor
2301 UK June RICS house price balance (-92.9%)
Tuesday, 15 July 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0400 Japan June Tokyo condominium sales (-17.7% y/y)
0600 Japan Bank of Japan monthly report
0630 France June Bank of France business sentiment (97)
0645 France May current account
0800 Italy June consumer price index
0830 UK June CPI (0.6% m/m)
0830 UK June CPI (3.3% y/y)
0830 UK June CPI, core (1.5% y/y)
0830 UK June PPI, input (3.8% m/m)
0830 UK June PPI, input (27.9% y/y)
0830 UK June PPI, output (1.6% m/m)
0830 UK June PPI, output (8.9% y/y)
0830 UK June PPI, core output (1.2% m/m)
0830 UK June PPI, core output (5.9% y/y)
0830 UK June retail price index (0.5% m/m)
0830 UK June retail price index (4.3% y/y
0900 Germany July ZEW survey, economic sentiment (-52.4)
0900 Germany July ZEW survey, current situation (376)
0900 Eurozone July ZEW survey, economic sentiment (-5.7)
1230 US June producer price index (1.4% m/m)
1230 US June producer price index (7.2% y/y)1230 US June PPI,
ex-food and energy (0.2% m/m)
1230 US June PPI, ex-food and energy (3.0% y/y)
1230 US June advance retail sales (1.0%)
1230 US June retail sales, ex-autos (1.2%)
1230 US July Empire manufacturing (-8.7)
1300 Canada Bank of Canada interest rate decision
1400 US July IBD economic optimism
1400 US May business inventories (0.5%)
1930 US San Francisco Fed President Yellen speaks
2150 Japan May tertiary industry index (1.8%)
Wednesday, 16 July 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0030 Australia May Westpac leading index
0600 Germany June consumer price index
0600 Germany June CPI, harmonized (0.6%)
0645 France June CPI (0.5% m/m)
0645 France June CPI (3.3% y/y)
0645 France June CPI, harmonized (3.7% y/y)
0830 UK June claimant count rate (2.5%)
0830 UK June jobless claims change (9,000)
0830 UK May average earnings, bonus (3.8%)
0830 UK May manufacturing wage cost (0.8%)
0900 Eurozone June CPI (0.6% m/m)
0900 Eurozone June CPI, core (1.7% y/y)
1100 US MBA mortgage applications
1230 US June consumer price index (0.6% m/m)
1230 US June consumer price index (4.2% y/y)
1230 US June CPI, ex-food and energy (0.2% m/m)
1230 US June CPI, ex-food and energy (2.3% y/y)
1230 Canada May manufacturing shipments (2.0% m/m)
1300 US May net long-term TIC flows (US$ 115.1 billion)
1300 US May total net TIC flows (US$ 60.6 billion)
1315 US June industrial production (-0.2%)
1315 US June capacity utilization (79.4%)
1700 US July NAHB housing market index (18)
1800 US Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes (24-25
June)
2350 Japan Foreign purchases of Japanese equities and bonds
2350 Japan Japanese purchases of foreign equities and bonds
Thursday, 17 July 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0130 Australia June balance of payments imports
0500 Japan May leading index
0500 Japan May coincident index
0800 Italy May trade balance
0830 Italy May current account
0900 CH July ZEW survey, expectations
1230 US June housing starts (975,000)
1230 US June building permits (969,000)
1230 US Weekly initial jobless claims
1230 US Continuing jobless claims
1230 Canada May international securities transactions
1400 US July Philadelphia Fed index
1430 Canada Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report
2350 Japan Bank of Japan Policy Board meeting minutes (12-13
June)
Friday, 18 July 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0130 Australia Q2 import price index (2.7% q/q)
0130 Australia Q2 export price index (3.5% q/q)
0600 Germany June producer prices
0800 Italy May industrial orders
0800 Italy May industrial sales
0830 UK June public sector net cash requirement
0830 UK June public sector net borrowing
0830 UK June M4 money supply
0830 UK June M4 sterling lending
0900 Eurozone May trade balance (€2.2 billion)
0900 Eurozone May construction output
1230 Canada June leading indicators
1230 Canada May wholesale sales
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