News
and Media
WEEKLY MARKET RECAP,
WEEK AHEAD, AND SCHEDULE
Mandus Invest SA. | 01, June, 2008 /
Sunday
EURO
The euro depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week
as the single currency tested bids around the $1.5460 level
and was capped around the $1.5815 level. The pair lost about
205 pips last week. Dallas Fed’s Fisher warned the Fed will
make a quick “change of course” if inflation worsens. Fed
Governor Mishkin resigned, effective 31 August.
ECB’s Trichet said economic shocks “clearly are not over.”
ECB’s Gonzalez-Paramo said banks are not “addicted” to liquidity
tenders while ECB’s Papademos said inflation will remain “significantly”
above 2.0% in 2008. ECB’s Stark said money and credit growth
provide a “crucial signpost” for managing inflation expectations.
Data released in the U.S. last week saw April new home sales
up at an annualized 526,000 units pace; May consumer confidence
fall to 57.2; the S&P/ Case Shiller March home price index
was off a record 14.4%; the Richmond Fed manufacturing index
fell to -3; Q1 GDP was upwardly revised to an annualized +0.9%
rate; the Q1 GDP deflator printed at 2.6%; the core PCE price
index ticked lower to 2.1%; weekly initial jobless claims
were up 4,000 to 372,000 with continuing jobless claims at
3.10 million; April durable goods orders were off 0.5% with
the ex-transportation component up 2.5%; April personal income
and spending were both up 0.2%; April core PCE was up 0.1%
m/m and 2.1% y/y; the final May University of Michigan consumer
sentiment index fell to 59.8; and May Chicago PMI rose to
49.1.
Data released in the eurozone last week saw the German GfK
consumer confidence indicator fall to 4.9 in June; the French
Insee business confidence indicator fell to 102; Q1 final
German GDP was unchanged at 1.5% q/q; EMU-15 May economic
sentiment was stable at 97.1; German May unemployment grew
4,000 with the unemployment rate at 7.9%; German April wholesale
sales were up 0.2% m/m and 9.3% y/y; EMU-15 M3 money supply
growth registered 10.6% y/y; German May CPI was up +0.6% m/m
and +3.0% y/y; the EMU-15 March current account balance printed
at -€15.3 billion; German April import prices were up 0.9%
m/m and 5.7% y/y; EMU-15 flash HICP was up +3.6%; EMU-15 April
unemployment was 7.1%; and German retail sales were off 1.7%
m/m
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 76.4% retracement of the 1.6018-1.5283 range and last
week’s low (2) was right around the 23.6% retracement of the
same range. The 1.5650/ 1.5854/ 1.5903/ 1.6072 levels represent
upside resistance targets while the 1.5456/ 1.5393/ 1.5164
levels represent downside support targets.
CNY
The yen depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as
the greenback tested offers around the Y105.85 level and was
supported around the Y103.10 level. The pair gained about
205 pips last week. The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 1.52%
on Friday to close at Y14,338.54. Keio University’s Kazuhito
Ikeo was nominated to BoJ’s Policy Board, possibly as a Deputy
Governor. BoJ’s Kamezaki said policy must be made “without
preconceptions.” BoJ chief Shirakawa warned against policy
decisions derived from short-term changes in consumer prices.
Data released in Japan this week saw April corporate services
prices up +0.1% m/m and +0.5% y/y; April retail sales were
up 0.1% y/y to Y11.19 trillion; April core inflation fell
to +0.9%; April unemployment rose to 4.0%; April household
spending fell 2.7% y/y; April industrial output weakened 0.3%
m/m; and April construction orders were off 8.4% y/y; and
April housing starts were off 8.7% y/y.
In Chinese news, the Chinese yuan appreciated
vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.9400
in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.9417. PBoC’s
Zhou warned against “excessive price and investment growth”
after the 12 May earthquake.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 50.0% retracement of the 114.65-95.71 range and last week’s
low (2) was above the 38.2% retracement of the same range.
Upside resistance targets remain the 106.77/ 107.41/ 108.63
levels while downside support targets remain the 103.44/ 102.42/
100.18/ 98.00/ 95.04/ 94.41 levels.
GBP
The British pound appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.9845 level and
was supported around the $1.9685 level. The pair gained about
10 pips last week. CBI’s quarterly service sector report showed
weakening business volumes, values, and expectations. MPC’s
Blanchflower dovishly said the MPC will move rates lower if
recession becomes a possibility.
Data released in the U.K. last week saw Hometrack May property
prices fall -1.9% y/y; BBA April mortgage lending activity
was up £5.4 billion; May CBI retail sales volumes improved
to -14 with the prices sub-index higher at +56; Nationwide
May house prices were off a record 2.5%; YouGov twelve-month
CPI inflation expectations reached 4.1%, up from 3.8%; and
May GfK consumer confidence fell to -29
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 38.2% retracement of the 1.7060-2.1159 range and last
week’s low (2) was below the 23.6% retracement of the 2.1159-1.9336
range. Upside resistance targets include the 2.0033/ 2.0248/
2.0463 levels while downside support targets include the 1.9767
1.9602/ 1.9395/ 1.9336/ 1.9117 levels.
CHF
The Swiss franc depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.0525
level and was supported around the CHF 1.0220 level. The pair
gained about 180 pips last week.
Data released in Switzerland last week saw the UBS April
consumption indicator fall to 2.18 from 2.25; the April trade
surplus reached CHF 1.57 billion, up 23% m/m; Q1 employment
rose to 3.9 million from 3.88 million in Q4; and the May KOF
leading indicator fell to 1.09.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 50.0% retracement of the 1.1594-0.9647 range and last
week’s low (2) was below the 38.2% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.0620/ 1.0850/
1.1134 levels while downside support targets include the 1.0250/
1.0106/ 0.9647/ 0.9605/ 0.9535 levels.
CAD
The Canadian dollar depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the greenback tested offers around the C$ 0.9980
level and was supported around the C$ 0.9820 level. The pair
gained about 45 pips last week.
Data released in Canada last week saw March unemployment
claims up 10% y/y at 245,200 new claims while March GDP was
off 0.2% m/m and up 1.7% y/y.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 38.2% retracement of the 1.0378-0.9709 range and last
week’s low (2) was below the 23.6% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.0044/ 1.0122/
1.0220/ 1.0378 levels while downside support targets include
the 0.9867/ 0.9752 levels.
AUD
The Australian depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as the Aussie tested bids around the US$ 0.9510 level
and was capped around the US$ 0.9635 level. The pair lost
about 30 pips last week.
Data released in Australia last week saw Q1 business credit
demand decline 7%; Q1 private capital expenditures were off
2.5%; Q1 construction work done was up 2.3%; the skilled workers
job vacancies index fell 0.1% m/m and 2.5% y/y; the March
Westpac leading index fell to an annualized rate of 3.3% from
3.6% in February; and April private sector credit was up 0.4%
m/m
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was near
a new multi-decade high and last week’s low (2) was above
the 23.6% retracement of the 0.8511-0.9653 range. Upside resistance
targets include the 0.9648/ 0.9920/ 1.0053 levels while downside
support targets include the 0.9487/ 0.9312/ 0.9263/ 0.9120/
0.9003/ 0.8887 levels.
SCHEDULE
Sunday, 1 June 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A Australia April HIA new home sales (-6.0% m/m)
N/A Germany Ecofin finance ministers meet
1610 France European Central Bank member Gonzalez-Paramo speaks
2330 Australia May AIG performance of manufacturing index
(52.7)
Monday, 2 June 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A UK May HBOS house price index (-1.3% m/m)
0030 Australia May TD Securities inflation (0.5% m/m)
0030 Australia May TD Securities inflation (4.3% y/y)
0130 Australia April retails ales (0.5%)
0130 Australia April inventories (0.7%)
0130 Japan April labour cash earnings (1.2% y/y)
0545 CH Q1 gross domestic product (3.6% y/y)
0545 CH Q1 gross domestic product (3.6% y/y)
0630 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia commodity index (20.7%
y/y)
0730 CH May purchasing managers’ index (56.7)
0750 France May purchasing managers’ index (51.3)
0800 Dubai U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson speaks
0800 Germany May purchasing managers’ index (53.5)
0800 Eurozone May purchasing managers’ index (50.5)
0830 UK April M4 money supply (0.7% m/m)
0830 UK April M4 money supply (11.2% y/y)
0830 UK April M4 sterling lending (£26.0 billion)
0830 UK April M4 net consumer credit (£1.2 billion)
0830 UK April net lending secured on dwellings (£6.9 billion)
0830 UK April mortgage approvals (64,000)
0830 UK May purchasing managers’ index (51.0)
1330 Eurozone European Central Bank President Trichet speaks
1400 US May ISM manufacturing (48.6)
1400 US May ISM, prices paid (84.5)
1400 US April construction spending (-1.1% m/m)
1620 US Atlanta Fed President Lockhart speaks
2350 Japan May monetary base (-2.8% y/y)
Tuesday, 3 June 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0130 Australia Q1 current account balance
0130 Australia April building approvals (-5.7% m/m)
0130 Australia April building approvals (-0.7% y/y)
0430 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision
0545 CH May consumer price index (0.8% m/m)
0545 CH May consumer price index (2.3% y/y)
0745 Italy May PMI, manufacturing (48.2)
0830 UK May PMI, construction (46.1)
0900 Eurozone Q1 GDP (0.7% q/q)
0900 Eurozone Q1 GDP (2.2% y/y)
0900 Eurozone April producer price index (0.7% m/m)
0900 Eurozone April producer price index (5.7% y/y)
1300 Spain Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke speaks
1300 Spain European Central Bank President Trichet speaks
1300 Spain Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa speaks
1400 US April factory orders (1.4%)
2301 UK May Nationwide consumer confidence (70)
2330 Australia May AIG performance of service index (47.3)
2350 Japan Q1 capital spending (-7.7%)
Wednesday, 4 June 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0130 Australia Q1 GDP (0.6% q/q)
0130 Australia Q1 GDP (3.9% y/y)
0130 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor
Low speaks
0300 NZ May ANZ commodity price index (-0.3%)
0830 Eurozone European Central Bank President Trichet speaks
0750 France May PMI, services (50.7)
0800 Germany May PMI, services (53.7)
0800 Eurozone May PMI, services (50.6)
0830 UK May PMI, services (50.4)
0900 Eurozone April retail sales (-0.4% m/m)
0900 Eurozone April retail sales (-1.6% y/y)
0930 UK May BRC shop price index
1100 US MBA mortgage applications (-4.6%)
1130 US May Challenger job cuts (27.4% y/y)
1215 US May ADP employment change (10,000)
1230 US Q1 non-farm productivity (2.2%)
1230 US Q1 unit labour costs (2.2%)
1845 US Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke speaks
2100 NZ Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision
Thursday, 5 June 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0030 US Atlanta Fed President Lockhart speaks
0130 Australia April trade balance (-A$ 2.736 billion)
0130 Japan May official foreign reserves (US$ 1.003 trillion)
0645 France Q1 ILO unemployment rate (7.8%)
0745 Italy May PMI, services (49.8)
1000 Germany April factory orders (-0.6% m/m)
1000 Germany April factory orders (-5.0% y/y)
1100 UK Bank of England interest rate decision
1145 Eurozone European Central Bank interest rate decision
1230 US Weekly initial jobless claims (372,000)
1230 US Continuing jobless claims (3.104 million)
1230 Canada April building permits (-4.5% m/m)
1400 Canada May Ivey PMI (57.6)
1600 US Philadelphia Fed President Plosser speaks
1730 US May ICSC chain store sales (3.6% y/y)
2330 Australia May AIG performance of construction index (42.6)
Friday, 6 June 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A Germany European Central Bank member Stark speaks
0645 France April trade balance (-€4.7 billion)
1000 Germany April industrial production (-0.5% m/m)
1000 Germany April industrial production (4.7% y/y)
1100 Canada May unemployment rate (6.1%)
1100 Canada May employment, net change (19,200)
1230 US May non-farm payrolls, net change (-20,000)
1230 US May unemployment rate (5.0%)
1230 US May average hourly earnings (0.1% m/m)
1230 US May average hourly earnings (3.4% y/y)
1245 US Federal Reserve Governor Kroszner speaks
1400 US April wholesale inventories (-0.1%)
1515 US Chicago Federal Reserve President Evans speaks
1900 US April consumer credit (US$ 15.3 billion)
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