News
and Media
WEEKLY MARKET RECAP,
WEEK AHEAD, AND SCHEDULE
Mandus Invest SA. | 08, June, 2008 /
Sunday
EURO
The euro appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week
as the single currency tested offers around the $1.5750 level
and was supported around the $1.5365 level. The pair gained
about 180 pips last week. Bernanke broke new ground by verbally
intervening to support the dollar saying “We are attentive
to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar
for inflation and inflation expectations and will continue
to formulate policy to guard against risks to both parts of
our dual mandate, including the risk of an erosion in longer-term
inflation expectations.” Paulson said the government will
work to “ensure that the dollar remains a strong and stable
currency.” Rumours abound that Lehman Brothers is in financial
trouble. Fed #2 Kohn sees “weak bank earnings and further
asset valuation writedowns.”
ECB officials remained hawkish with Trichet saying Europeans
“fully support” the ECB’s price stability mandate. ECB’s Liebscher
said the ECB will do what it takes to contain inflation while
Stark seeks inflation back below 2.0% in the “medium term.”
ECB’s Wellink warned against “second round effects.” European
officials do not have a consensus on the French plan to cap
oil taxes. ECB kept its rate unchanged at 4.00% and Trichet
reported the ECB is “in a state of heightened alert” with
a number of policymakers making the “case for raising rates.”
A hike on 3 July cannot be ruled out. The ECB now sees 2008
inflation growth around 3.4% with GDP growth around 1.8%.
Buba lifted its 2008 inflation and GDP growth forecasts to
3.0% and 2.0%, respectively.
Data released in the U.S. last week saw ISM May manufacturing
improve to 49.6 from 48.6 in April; April construction spending
improved to -0.4% from March’s -0.6% level; April factory
orders were up 1.1% with the ex-transportation component up
2.6%; ADP May private sector jobs growth printed at 40,000;
Q1 non-farm business productivity was upwardly revised to
an annualized 2.6% and 3.3% y/y; unit labour cost growth was
unrevised at 2.2% q/q and 0.7% y/y; Challenger May jobs layoff
plans rose 15% m/m; the May ISM services index printed at
51.7; weekly initial jobless claims were off 18,000 to 357,000
with continuing claims off 16,000; May non-farm payrolls were
off 49,000 with the unemployment rate rocketing higher to
5.5%; and May average hourly earnings were up 0.3% m/m and
3.5% y/y.
Data released in the eurozone last week saw EMU-15 May manufacturing
PMI fall to 50.6; German final May manufacturing PMI improved
to 53.6; German April new orders for machinery and industrial
plant were up 35% y/y; Q1 GDP growth was upwardly revised
to 0.8% q/q from 0.7% q/q and 2.2% y/y; the EMU-15 April producer
price index was up 0.8% m/m and 6.1% y/y; EMU-15 April retail
sales were off 0.6% m/m and 2.9% y/y; EMU-15 May services
PMI was unrevised at 50.6 from 52.0 in April; German final
May services PMI rallied to 53.8; German April manufacturing
orders were off 1.8% m/m; and German April industrial output
fell 0.8%.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 23.6% retracement of the 1.4309-1.6018 range and last
week’s low (2) was right around the 38.2% retracement of the
same range. The 1.5789/ 1.5854/ 1.5903/ 1.6072 levels represent
upside resistance targets while the 1.5650/ 1.5563/ 1.5456/
1.5393/ 1.5164 levels represent downside support targets.
CNY
The yen appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as
the greenback tested bids around the Y103.85 level and was
capped around the Y106.40 level. The pair lost about 15 pips
last week. The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 1.03% on Friday
to close at Y14,489.44. The government reported “inflationary
pressures are certainly growing” in Japan now. Ikeo foresees
“flexible” policy if elected to the BoJ’s Policy Board. Finance
chief Nukaga said the government is “closely monitoring foreign
exchange and U.S. economic developments.
Data released in Japan this week saw the GDP gap improve
to +0.7% in the January – March quarter from +0.3% in the
October – December quarter; the May monetary base slid 0.9%
y/y; Q1 combined capital investment was up 4.9% y/y; and Japan’s
foreign reserves fell to US$ 996.97 billion at the end of
May.
In Chinese news, the Chinese yuan appreciated vis-a-vis the
U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.9230 in the over-the-counter
market, down from CNY 6.9400. PBoC will maintain a tight monetary
policy to prevent rapid credit growth. Goldman Sachs sees
China’s May CPI growth near a one-year low. Financial official
Zhu said China wants the U.S. to pursue a strong dollar.
Data released in China last week saw the CLSA May PMI measure
fall to 54.7 while the CFLP May PMI measure weakened to 53.3
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 61.8% retracement of the 114.65-95.71 range and last week’s
low (2) was below the 50.0% retracement of the same range.
Upside resistance targets remain the 105.70/ 106.77/ 107.41/
108.63 levels while downside support targets remain the 103.44/
102.42/ 100.18/ 98.00/ 95.04/ 94.41 levels.
GBP
The British pound depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.9525 level and
was capped around the $1.9775 level. The pair lost about 120
pips last week. News that U.K. mortgage giant Bradford &
Bingley Plc is issuing a major profit warning sent sterling
tumbling. A rift may have developed between BoE’s King and
Chancellor Darling on naming Bean or Tucker to a deputy governorship.
BoE’s MPC kept its headline repo rate unchanged at 5.00% with
minutes due 18 June.
Data released in the U.K. last week saw April mortgage approvals
fell to a record low and mortgage lending fell to its lowest
level since November 2004; CIPS May PMI receded to 50.0 with
output prices up for the 34th consecutive month; April M4
money supply growth was downwardly revised; CIPS May construction
PMI fell to 43.9; May Nationwide consumer confidence fell
to its weakest level since May 2004; May services PMI fell
to 49.8; BRC May shop price growth accelerated to an annualized
1.8%; and Halifax May house prices were off 2.4% m/m and 3.8%
y/y
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was right
around the 23.6% retracement of the 2.1159-1.9336 range and
last week’s low (2) was below the 38.2% retracement of the
1.7060-2.1159 range. Upside resistance targets include the
1.9767/ 1.9877/ 1.9999/ 2.0033/ 2.0248 while downside support
targets include the 1.9767 1.9602/ 1.9395/ 1.9336/ 1.9117
levels.
CHF
The Swiss franc dappreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0205 level
and was capped around the CHF 1.0520 level. The pair lost
about 190 pips last week. SNB’s Jordan said recent central
bank policy may have contributed to moral hazards and increased
inflationary pressures.
Data released in Switzerland last week saw Q1 GDP growth
was up 0.3% q/q and 3.0% y/y; May PMI fell to 55.7 from 56.7
in April; the May consumer price index was up 0.9% m/m and
2.9% y/y; and KOF sees 2008 GDP growth and unemployment at
2.0% and 2.6%, respectively.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 50.0% retracement of the 1.1594-0.9647 range and last
week’s low (2) was below the 38.2% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.0250/ 1.0391/
1.0620/ 1.0850/ 1.1134 levels while downside support targets
include the 1.0106/ 0.9647/ 0.9605/ 0.9535 levels.
CAD
The Canadian dollar depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the greenback tested offers around the C$ 1.0220
level and was supported around the C$ 0.9925 level. The pair
gained about 250 pips last week.
Data released in Canada last week saw April building permits
climb 14.5% m/m; the April Ivey PMI survey improved to 62.5
from 57.6 in April; the May unemployment rate was unchanged
at 6.1%; and May net jobs growth increased 8,400.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was right
around the 76.4% retracement of the 1.0378-0.9709 range and
last week’s low (2) was below the 38.2% retracement of the
same range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.0220/
1.0378/ 1.0439 levels while downside support targets include
the 1.0122/ 1.0044/ 0.9965/ 0.9867/ 0.9752 levels.
AUD
The Australian appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.9640 level
and was supported around the US$ 0.9635 level. The pair gained
about 45 pips last week. RBA kept its official cash rate unchanged
at 7.2% and maintained a tightening bias.
Data released in Australia last week saw companies’ Q1 gross
operating profits up 2.2% q/q; April retail sales fell 0.2%
m/m to A$ 20.07 billion; the RBA May commodity price index
was up 6.1%; Australian May PMI fall to 51.2; April building
approvals were up 7.8%; the Q1 current account deficit printed
at A$ 19.49 billion; Q1 GDP was up 0.6% q/q and 3.6% y/y;
the April trade balance printed at –A$ 957 million; and May
construction activity worsened.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was near
a new multi-decade high and last week’s low (2) was right
around the 23.6% retracement of the 0.8511-0.9653 range. Upside
resistance targets include the 0.9648/ 0.9920/ 1.0053 levels
while downside support targets include the 0.9487/ 0.9312/
0.9263/ 0.9120/ 0.9003/ 0.8887 levels.
SCHEDULE
Sunday, 8 June 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A NZ May REINZ house sales (-45.5% y/y)N/A NZ May QV house
prices (4.9% y/y)
2350 Japan May M2+CD money supply (1.9% y/y)
2350 Japan May broad liquidity (2.8% y/y)
2350 Japan May bank lending (1.2% y/y)
Monday, 9 June 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A Japan Q3 manpower survey (22)
N/A Japan May machine tool orders (0.4% y/y)
0430 Japan May bankruptcies (8.3% y/y)
0500 Japan April leading economic index (18.2%)
0500 Japan April coincident index (30.0%)
0545 CH May unemployment rate (2.6%)
0600 Germany April trade balance (€16.7 billion)
0600 Germany April current account (€17.2 billion)
0700 Japan May economy watchers’ survey, current (35.5)
0700 Japan May economy watchers’ survey, outlook (36.1)
0830 Eurozone June Sentix investor confidence (3.5)
0830 UK May PPI, input (2.4% m/m)
0830 UK May PPI, input (23.3% y/y)
0830 UK May PPI, output (1.4% m/m)
0830 UK May PPI, output (7.5% y/y)
0830 UK May PPI, output core (1.0% m/m)
0830 UK May PPI, output core (4.6% y/y)
1215 Canada May housing starts (213,900)
1400 US April pending home sales (-1.0% m.m)
1615 US New York Federal Reserve President Geithner speaks
2100 US Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke speaks
2100 US Boston Fed President Rosengren speaks
2301 UK May BRC retail sales monitor
2301 UK May RICS house price balance (-95.1%)
2315 US Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke speaks
2350 Japan April machine orders (-8.3% m/m)
2350 Japan April machine orders (-6.2% y/y)
Tuesday, 10 June 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0130 Australia April home loans (-6.1%)
0130 Australia April ANZ job advertisements (3.1% m/m)
0130 Australia May NAB business confidence (-8)
0130 Australia May NAB business confidence (7)
0130 Australia April investment lending (-7.2%)
0645 France April industrial production (-0.8% m/m)
0645 France April industrial production (1.0% y/y)
0645 France April manufacturing production (-1.5% m/m)
0645 France April manufacturing production (0.4% y/y)
0800 Finland European Central Bank member Liikanen speaks
0800 Italy April industrial production (-0.2% m/m)
0800 Italy April industrial production (-2.5% y/y)
0830 UK April industrial production (-0.5% m/m)
0830 UK April industrial production (0.2% y/y)
0830 UK April manufacturing production (-0.5% m/m)
0830 UK April manufacturing production (0.6% y/y)
0830 UK April DCLG house prices (5.2% y/y)
0830 UK April average earnings (4.00%)
0830 UK April manufacturing unit wage costs (0.80%)
0830 UK April total trade balance (-£4.031 billion)
0900 Italy Q1 GDP
1230 US April trade balance (-US$ 58.2 billion)
1230 Canada April international merchandise trade balance
(C$ 5.5 billion)
1300 Canada Bank of Canada interest rate decision
1600 US European Central Bank member Orphanides speaks
2200 NZ April tax receipts
2245 NZ Q1 terms of trade index
2301 UK May NIESR GDP estimate (2.9%)
2350 Japan Q1 nominal GDP
2350 Japan Q1 GDP deflator (-1.40% y/y)
2350 Japan May domestic corporate goods price index (0.60%
m/m)
2350 Japan May domestic corporate goods price index (3.70%
y/y)
2350 Japan April trade balance (Y1.25 trillion)
2350 Japan April current account (Y2.882 trillion)
Wednesday, 11 June 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A Japan Bank of Japan Policy Board meeting
0030 Australia June Westpac consumer confidence (2.70%)
0130 Australia April lending finance (-3.90%)
0645 France April current account (-€2.5 billion)
0645 France May consumer price index (0.30% m/m)
0645 France May consumer price index (3.00% y/y)
0645 France May harmonized consumer price index (0.40% m/m)
0645 France May harmonized consumer price index (3.40% y/y)
0830 UK May claimant count rate (2.50%)
0830 UK May jobless claims change (7,200)
0830 UK April ILO unemployment rate (5.20%)
0830 UK April average earnings, ex-bonus (3.80%)
0830 UK April visible trade balance (-£7.437 billion)
1100 US MBA mortgage applications
1230 Canada Q1 capacity utilization (81.80%)
1230 Canada April new housing price index (0.20% m/m)
1530 US European Central Bank member Stark speaks
1615 US Federal Reserve Governor Kroszner speaks
1615 US Cleveland Federal Reserve President Pianalto speaks
1700 US St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaks
1800 US Federal Reserve Beige Book
2245 NZ May food prices (0.30% m/m)
2350 Japan Foreign purchases of Japanese equities and bonds
2350 Japan Japanese purchases of foreign equities and bonds
Thursday, 12 June 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A Japan Bank of Japan Policy Board interest rate decision
0000 NZ May PMI (51.4)
0100 Australia June consumer inflation expectations
0130 Australia May employment change (25,400)
0130 Australia May unemployment rate
0800 Eurozone June monthly report
0900 Eurozone April industrial production (-0.20% m/m)
0900 Eurozone April industrial production
0915 Germany European Central Bank member Weber speaks
1000 Eurozone European Central Bank member Bini-Smaghi speaks
1230 US May import price index (1.80% m/m)
1230 US May import price index (15.40% y/y)
1230 US May advance retail sales (-0.20%)
1230 US May retail sales, ex-autos (0.50%)
1230 US Weekly initial jobless claims
1230 US Continuing jobless claims
1400 NZ April business inventories (0.10%)
2245 NZ April retail sales (-1.20% m/m)
2245 NZ April retail sales, ex-autos (-0.50% m/m)
Friday, 13 June 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0430 Japan April industrial production
0430 Japan April capacity utilization (-3.5% m/m)
0500 Japan May consumer confidence (35.4)
0600 Japan Bank of Japan monthly report
0600 Germany May consumer price index (0.6% m/m)
0600 Germany May consumer price index, harmonized (-0.3% m/m)
0600 Germany May consumer price index, harmonized (3.0% y/y)
0630 France Bank of France business sentiment (101.0)
0800 Italy May CPI
0900 Eurozone Q1 labour costs (2.7% y/y)
0900 Eurozone Q1 employment (0.2% q/q)
0900 Eurozone Q1 employment (1.7% y/y)
1230 Canada April manufacturing shipments (-1.6% m/m)
1230 Canada Q1 labour productivity (-0.8% q/q)
1230 US May CPI (0.2% m/m)
1230 US May CPI (3.9% y/y)
1230 US May CPI, ex-food and energy (0.1% m/m)
1230 US May CPI, ex-food and energy (2.3% y/y)
1400 US June preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment
1600 Mexico Former Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan speaks
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