News
and Media
WEEKLY MARKET RECAP,
WEEK AHEAD, AND SCHEDULE
Mandus Invest SA. | 29, June, 2008 /
Sunday
EURO
The euro appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week
as the single currency tested offers around the $1.5785 level
and was supported around the $1.5465 level. The pair gained
about 180 pips last week. The FOMC kept rates unchanged at
2.00% with Dallas Fed’s Fisher voting for a hike and many
traders don’t see a Fed hike before December at the earliest.
The ECB is expected to lift the repo rate by 25bps to 4.25%
this week. ECB’s Stark said it’s essential “we seriously examine”
interest rates. Germany lifts its 2008 GDP forecast to 2.3%.
The ECB will hold a press conference on 7 August. ECB’s Noyer
reported there is “no concrete threat of a (further) credit
crunch.”
Data released in the U.S. last week saw June consumer confidence
fall to 50.4; the April Case Shiller house price index was
off a record 15.3% y/y; the Richmond Fed June manufacturing
index printed at -12; May durable goods orders were unchanged
m/m and off 0.1% y/y with the ex-transportation component
off 0.9% m/m; May building permits were revised to -0.4% from
-1.3%; May new home sales were off 2.5% to an annualized 512,000
unit pace; May existing home sales were up 2.0% to an annualized
4.99 million pace; final Q1 GDP was upwardly revised to 1.0%;
weekly initial jobless claims were unchanged at 384,000 with
continuing jobless claims up 82,000 to 3.139 million; May
personal income was up 1.9% and May personal spending was
up 0.8%; the core PCE price index was up 0.1% m/m and 2.1%
y/y; and the final June University of Michigan consumer sentiment
index fell to 56.4.
Data released in the eurozone last week saw the German June
Ifo business climate index fall to 101.3; the EMU-15 services
PMI survey fell to 49.5 with the manufacturing PMI survey
at 49.1; the German GfK July consumer sentiment index fell
to 3.9; the French June business climate indicator was unchanged
at 102; EMU-15 April factory orders were up 2.5% m/m and 11.7%
y/y; EMU-15 May M3 money supply growth registered 10.5% y/y;
German May import prices were up 2.4% m/m and 7.9% y/y; German
June CPI was up 0.3% m/m and 3.3% y/y; the EMU-15 current
account balance improved to -€300 million; French Q1 GDP was
revised to 0.5% and French May PPI was up 1.3% m/m and 6.7%
y/y.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 61.8% retracement of the 1.6018-1.5283 range and last
week’s low (2) was above the 23.6% retracement of the same
range. The 1.5844/ 1.5903/ 1.6018 levels represent upside
resistance targets while the 1.5737/ 1.5650/ 1.5563/1.5456/
1.5285 levels represent downside support targets.
CNY
The yen appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as
the greenback tested bids around the Y105.85 level and was
capped around the Y108.40 level. The pair lost about 140 pips
last week. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 2.01% on Friday
to close at Y13,544.36. BoJ’s Tankan will be released this
week and is expected to weaken. Fukuda wants the G8 to discuss
elevated food and oil prices. BoJ Policy Board member Nakamura
said inflation risks grew in June. Recession risks have increased
in Japan.
Data released in Japan this week saw the government’s measure
of Q2 large Japanese companies’ sentiment fall to -15.2; May
supermarket sales were off 1.1%; the May merchandise trade
surplus shrank to Y365.61 billion; the May corporate services
price index climbed +0.2% m/m and +0.6% y/y; May household
spending fell 3.2% y/y; core inflation was up 1.5% y/y in
May; the May unemployment rate was steady at 4.0%; and May
industrial output rose 2.9%.
In Chinese news, the Chinese yuan appreciated
vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8622
in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8796. China’s
foreign reserves totaled US$ 1.76 trillion at the end of April.
Data released in China last week saw industrial
profits up 20.9% y/y between January and May.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 76.4% retracement of the 114.65-95.71 range and last week’s
low (2) was below the 61.8% retracement of the same range.
Upside resistance targets remain the 107.15/ 108.56/ 110.18/
112.66/ 114.65 levels while downside support targets remain
the 105.18/ 103.44/ 102.42/ 100.18 levels..
GBP
The British pound appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.9950 level and
was supported around the $1.9585 level. The pair gained about
190 pips last week. MPC’s Sentance hawkishly said the BoE
must prevent wage and price increases in response to temporary
higher inflation. BoE’s Gieve sees a further “downturn in
economic activity” this year. BoE’s King said his letter to
Chancellor Darling was not intended to be dovish. MPC officials
discussed a rate hike this month.
Data released in the U.K. last week saw Rightmove June house
prices fall 1.2% m/m; BBA May mortgage approvals fell to a
decade-old low; the CBI June retail sales balance was -9%,
up from -14% in May; Q1 business investment declined 1.8%
q/q; and Q1 GDP was downwardly revised to +0.3% q/q and was
up a yearly 2.3%.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 50% retracement of the 2.0396-1.9364 range and last week’s
low (2) was just below the 23.6% retracement of the same range.
Upside resistance targets include the 2.0033/ 2.0248/ 2.0463
levels while downside support targets include the 1.9880/
1.9758/ 1.9602/ 1.9395 levels.
CHF
The Swiss franc appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0165 level
and was capped around the CHF 1.0490 level. The pair lost
about 175 pips last week. The Swiss government sees 2008 inflation
growth and economic growth of 2.5% and 1.9%, respectively.
The Swiss government sees a budget surplus of CHF 1.4 billion
in 2009. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation may increase
its Swiss franc holdings.
Data released in Switzerland last week saw the UBS May consumption
indicator decline to 1.91 and the KOF June leading index fell
to 1.01.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 50.0% retracement of the 1.1594-0.9647 range and last
week’s low (2) was below the 38.2% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.0250/ 1.0393/
1.0623/ 1.0850/ 1.1134 levels while downside support targets
include the 1.0135/ 1.0020/ 0.9877/ 0.9647/ 0.9605 levels.
CAD
The Canadian dollar appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the greenback tested bids around the C$ 1.0045
level and was capped around the C$ 1.0190 level. The pair
lost about 35 pips last week. Canada’s Supreme Court overturned
a lower-court decision that blocked a C$ 34 billion leveraged
buyout of BCE Inc.
Data released in Canada last week saw Canadian May producer
prices rose 0.6% m/m; the raw materials price index was up
3.1%; and April average weekly earnings rose 3.2% y/y
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 76.4% retracement of the 1.0378-0.9709 range and last
week’s low (2) was right around the 50.0% retracement of the
same range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.0129/
1.0202/ 1.0378/ 1.0439/ 1.0797 levels while downside support
targets include the 1.0069/ 0.9965/ 0.9867/ 0.9752 levels..
AUD
The Australian dollar appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.9630
level and was supported around the US$ 0.9490 level. The pair
gained about 75 pips last week.
Data released in Australia last week saw Q1 average annual
enterprise wages rise 3.7%
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was near
multi-decade highs and last week’s low (2) was above the 23.6%
retracement of the same range. Upside resistance targets include
the 0.9648/ 0.9920/ 1.0053 levels while downside support targets
include the 0.9487/ 0.9302/ 0.9263/ 0.9120/ 0.9003/ 0.8887
levels.
SCHEDULE
Sunday, 29 June 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A Australia May HIA new home sales (0.1% m/m)
2245 NZ May building permits (82.1% m/m)
2301 UK June GfK consumer confidence (-29)
2315 Japan June PMI, manufacturing (47.7)
Monday, 30 June 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0030 Australia June TD Securities inflation (0.3% m/m)
0030 Australia June TD Securities inflation (4.5% y/y)
0130 Australia May private sector credit (0.4% m/m)
0130 Australia May private sector credit (14.1% y/y)
0300 NZ June NBNZ business confidence (-49.7)
0500 Japan May housing starts (-8.7% y/y)
0500 Japan May housing starts, annualized (1.151 million)
0500 Japan May construction orders (-8.4% y/y)
0800 Italy May producer price index (0.4% m/m)
0800 Italy May producer price index (6.3% y/y)
0830 UK May M4 money supply (0.4% m/m)
0830 UK May M4 money supply (10.0% y/y)
0830 UK May M4 sterling lending (£4.8 billion)
0830 UK May net consumer credit (£900 million)
0830 UK May net lending secured on dwellings (£6.4 billion)
0830 UK May mortgage approvals (58,000)
0830 UK April index of services
0900 Eurozone June consumer price index, estimate (3.6% y/y)
0900 Italy June consumer price index, harmonized (3.7% y/y)
1230 Canada April gross domestic product (-0.2% m/m)
1345 US June Chicago PMI (49.1)
2330 Australia June performance of manufacturing index (51.2)
2350 Japan Q2 Tankan large manufacturers’ index (11)
2350 Japan Q2 Tankan large manufacturers’ outlook (7)
2350 Japan Q2 Tankan non-manufacturing index (12)
2350 Japan Q2 Tankan non-manufacturing outlook (13)
2350 Japan Q2 Tankan large all-industry capital expenditures
(-1.6%)
Tuesday, 1 July 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0130 Japan May labour cash earnings (0.6% y/y)
0430 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision
0600 Germany May retail sales (-1.7% m/m)
0600 Germany May retail sales (-1.0% y/y)
0600 Germany May ILO unemployment rate (7.4%)
0600 UK June Nationwide house prices (-4.4% y/y)
0630 Australia June Reserve Bank of Australia commodity index
(28.6% y/y)
0730 CH June purchasing managers’ index (55.7)
0750 France June purchasing managers’ index, manufacturing
(49.2)
0755 Germany June unemployment rate (7.9%)
0755 Germany June unemployment change (4,000)
0800 Germany June PMI, manufacturing (52.3)
0800 Eurozone June PMI, manufacturing (49.1)
0830 UK June PMI, manufacturing (50.0)
0900 Eurozone May unemployment rate (7.1%)
1400 US June ISM manufacturing (49.6)
1400 US June ISM, prices paid (87.0)
1400 US May construction spending (-0.4% m/m)
2200 US Atlanta Fed President Lockhart speaks
2350 Japan June monetary base (-0.9% y/y)
Wednesday, 2 July 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0100 Australia June DEWR skilled vacancies (-0.1% m/m)
0130 Australia May retail sales (-0.2%)
0130 Australia May building approvals (7.8% m/m)
0130 Australia May building approvals (5.2% y/y)
0830 UK June PMI, construction (43.9)
0900 Eurozone May PPI (0.8% m/m)
0900 Eurozone May PPI (6.1% y/y)
1100 US MBA mortgage applications (-9.3%)
1130 US June Challenger job cuts (45.6% y/y)
1215 US June ADP employment change (40,000)
1400 US May factory orders (1.1%)
1500 UK U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson speaks
1600 Israel Federal Reserve Governor Mishkin speaks
2330 Australia June AIG performance of service index (49.7)
2350 Japan Foreign purchases of Japanese equities and bonds
2350 Japan Japanese purchases of foreign equities and bonds
Thursday, 3 July 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A UK June HBOS house prices (-2.4% m/m)
0130 Australia May trade balance (-A$ 957 million)
0300 NZ June ANZ commodity prices (1.0%)
0545 CH June consumer price index (0.8% m/m)
0545 CH June consumer price index (2.9% y/y)
0750 France June PMI, services (49.2)
0755 Germany June PMI, services (53.3)
0800 Eurozone June PMI, services (49.5)
0830 UK Q2 Bank of England credit conditions survey
0830 UK June PMI, services (49.8)
0900 Eurozone May retail sales (-0.6% m/m)
0900 Eurozone May retail sales (-2.9% y/y)
1145 Eurozone European Central Bank interest rate decision
1230 US June unemployment rate (5.5%)
1230 US Weekly initial jobless claims (384,000)
1230 US Continuing jobless claims (3.139 million)
1230 US June average hourly earnings (0.3% m/m)
1230 US June average hourly earnings (3.5% y/y)
1230 US June non-farm payrolls, change (-49,000)
1400 US June ISM non-manufacturing (51.7)
2200 NZ May tax receipts
Friday, 4 July 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0500 Japan May leading index (92.8%)
0500 Japan May coincident index (101.7%)
1000 Germany May factory orders (-1.8% m/m)
1000 Germany May factory orders (15.0% y/y)
1400 Canada June Ivey PMI (62.5)
|
