News
and Media
WEEKLY MARKET RECAP,
WEEK AHEAD, AND SCHEDULE
Mandus Invest SA. | 2, March, 2008 /
Sunday
EURO
The euro appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week
as the single currency tested offers around the $1.5240 level
and was supported around the $1.4780 level. The pair gained
about 340 pips last week. Traders are focused on the ratings
of troubled U.S. bond insurers. Dallas Fed President Fisher’s
economic outlook hasn’t changed materially since he voted
in January to keep rates steady. Fed #2 Kohn said aggressive
easing “won’t forestall a period of economic weakness.” Bernanke
testified the economy has become “distinctly less favourable”
and intimated more rate cuts may be warranted. The markets
see between a 50% and 60% chance the FOMC will reduce interest
rates by 75bps on 18 March.
Buba’s Zeitler said Germany’s economy will be linked to ongoing
wage negotiations; ECB’s Stark said the ECB is “highly dissatisfied”
with current inflation rates. ECB’s Orphanides said the ECB
may reduce its economic forecasts and noted second-round inflation
has crept into the eurozone. The ECB will release updated
economic and inflation forecasts on 6 March. EMU-15 officials
upped their verbal intervention when the euro crossed above
$1.50. ECB’s Bini Smaghi said the ECB’s economic projections
to be released on 6 March will forecast lower economic growth
and higher inflation growth. Eurogroup’s Juncker verbally
intervened on the euro’s rise. ECB’s Weber said interest rate
expectations are “underestimating” inflation risks.
Data released in the U.S. last week saw January existing
home sales off 0.4% to an annualized 4.89 million units; January
headline PPI was up 1.0% m/m and 7.4% y/y with the core rate
up 0.4% m/m and 2.3% y/y; February consumer confidence fell
to 75.0 from 98.3; S&P reported house prices fell 8.9%
in Q4; the Richmond Fed February manufacturing index improved
to -5; January durable goods orders fell 5.3% with the ex-transportation
component off 1.6%; key core durable goods ex-defense and
ex-aircraft were off 1.4%; January building permits were upwardly
revised to -1.8%; weekly initial jobless claims rose 19,000
to 373,000; continuing jobless claims rose to 2.807 million;
Q4 GDP expanded an unrevised annualized 0.6%; Q4 headline
PCE was upwardly revised to 4.1% from 3.9% while the core
PCE index printed at 2.7%; January personal income was up
0.3%; January personal spending was up +0.4%; the January
core PCE deflator was up +0.3% m/m and +2.2% y/y; the February
Chicago PMI fell to 44.5; and the final February University
of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 70.8 from 78.4.
Data released in the eurozone last week saw German February
Ifo business climate improve to 104.1 while expectations fell
to 98.2; German Q4 GDP fell to +0.3%; EMU-15 M3 money supply
growth was up 11.5% y/y; German January import prices were
up 0.8% m/m and 5.2% y/y; the German GfK consumer climate
index printed at 4.5 in March; Germany’s February jobless
rate fell to 8.0%; French January PPI was up 0.5% m/m and
4.9% y/y; German January wholesale sales were up 3.8% m/m
and 4.8% y/y; EMU-15 retail PMI sales rose to 52.4 in February
from 48.1 in January; EMU-15 February economic sentiment fell
to a two-year low of 100.1; German consumer prices rose 0.5%
m/m and 2.8% y/y; EMU-15 January HICP was up 3.2% y/y; and
the EMU-15 January unemployment rate fell to 7.1%.
Technical Outlook
Last week’shigh (1) was a new
lifetime high and last week’s low (2) was above the 23.6%
retracement of the 1.3359-1.4967 range. The 1.5313/ 1.5520/
1.5854 levels represent upside resistance targets while the
1.4979/ 1.4813/ 1.4716/ 1.4631 evels represent downside support
targets.
CNY
The yen appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as
the greenback tested bids around the Y103.80 level and was
capped around the Y108.20 level. The pair lost about 305 pips
last week. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 2.32% on Friday
to close at Y13,603.02. The yen strengthened last week on
growing risk aversion. The government reported Japan’s fiscal
situation “remains severe.” BoJ Policy Board member Mizuno
said downside economic risks may increase.
Data released in Japan this week saw the Q4 demand-supply
gap register +0.7% compared with +0.2% in Q3; the January
corporate service price index fell 1.1% m/m and rose 0.8%
y/y; January retail sales rose 1.5% y/y; January industrial
output fell 2.0% m/m; the January unemployment rate was unchanged
at 3.8%; January all-household spending was up 3.6% y/y; January
core CPI was up 0.8% y/y; and January housing starts fell
5.7% y/y.
In Chinese news, the Chinese yuan appreciated vis-a-vis the
U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 7.1133 in the over-the-counter
market, down from CNY 7.1418. China and the EU will convene
a summit in April. PBoC reported it will allow the exchange
rate to become more liberalized in 2008. The government lifted
its 2008 CPI target rate to 4.8% from 4.6%. A government think
tank reported Q1 GDP and CPI may be around 10.5% and 6.9%
y/y, respectively .
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 23.6% retracement of the 114.65-104.96 range and last
week’s low (2) was below the 38.2% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets remain the 104.91/ 105.62/
106.18/ 106.75/ 107.45 levels while downside support targets
remain the 101.65/ 100.09/ 98.00/ 94.41 levels.
GBP
The British pound appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.9920 level and
was supported around the $1.9615 level. The pair gained about
190 pips last week. BoE MPC’s Barker reported “Recession remains
outside the main possibilities. We have got this combination
of shocks coming from abroad and it's difficult. We certainly
expect a period of greater volatility this year.” BoE Deputy
Governor Lomax said inflated inflation expectations limit
the MPC’s ability to cut rates. MPC’s Besley said he is “largely
agnostic” about higher inflation risks versus lower growth
risks. Rumours abound that another U.K. bank is experiencing
funding problems.
Data released in the U.K. last week saw BBA mortgage approvals
edge up in January but fall 31.3% y/y; January net mortgage
lending totaled £5.2 billion; Hometrack February U.K. house
prices fell 0.2% m/m; YouGov February 12-month consumer inflation
expectations fell back to 3.1% from 3.3%; the February CBI
sales volume index weakened to -3 from +4 in January; Q4 GDP
was unchanged at 0.6% and 3.1%; Land Registry January house
prices in England and Wales rose 0.9% m/m and 6.4% y/y; Nationwide
February house prices fell 0.5% m/m; BoE reported mortgage
approvals rose 74,000 in January; the GfK consumer confidence
index fell to -17 in February; January total consumer lending
grew £8.4 billion in January; and M4 money supply growth was
up an annualized 13.1% .
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 38.2% retracement of the 2.1159-1.9336 range and last
week’s low (2) was below the 23.6% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 2.0033/ 2.0149/
2.0248/ 2.0463 levels while downside support targets include
the 1.9767/ 1.9602/ 1.9336/ 1.9262/ 1.9182/ 1.9103/ 1.8618
levels.
CHF
The Swiss franc appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0425 level
and was capped around the CHF 1.0925level. The pair lost about
390 pips last week. KOF reported Swiss firms plan to increase
their investments in 2008.
Data released in Switzerland last week saw the UBS January
private consumption index improve to 2.19 from 2.18 in December;
Q4 employed persons rose 2.7% y/y; and the KOF February economic
barometer fell to 1.65 from 1.75 in January.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was just
below the 23.6% retracement of the 1.2476-1.0728 range and
last week’s low (2) was a new lifetime low. Upside resistance
targets include the 1.0701/ 1.0872/ 1.1010/ 1.1148/ 1.1318
levels while downside support targets include the 1.0365/
1.0074/ 0.9605 levels.
CAD
The Canadian dollar appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the greenback tested bids around the C$ 0.9710
level and was capped around the C$ 1.0130 level. The pair
lost about 325 pips last week. Canadian finance minister Flaherty
delivered a budget and highlighted a C$ 21 billion stimulus
to help the economy. Finance minister Flaherty verbally intervened
against volatility in the loonie.
Data released in Canada last week saw the number of employees
in Canada increase 0.1% in December with 13,900 new jobs created;
January employees’ average weekly earnings were up 3.1% y/y;
the Q4 current account printed at –C$ 513 million; the January
industrial product price index rose 0.9% m/m, down from 1.1%
in December; and the January raw materials price index climbed
3.4% in January .
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 23.6% retracement of the 0.9063-1.0378 range and last
week’s low (2) was right around the 50.0% retracement of the
same range. Upside resistance targets include the 0.9867/
0.9965/ 1.0044/ 1.0122/ 1.0220 levels while downside support
targets include the 0.9725/ 0.9623/ 0.9569/ 0.9482 levels.
AUD
The Australian dollar appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.9495
level and was supported around the US$ 0.9215 level. The pair
gained about 85 pips last week. RBA is expected to tighten
monetary policy twice in 2008.
Data released in Australia last week saw Q4 building activity
fall 2.2% q/q; Q4 private sector investment was up a quarterly
5.1%; and January private sector credit growth was up 1.1%
m/m and 16.4% y/y
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was a
new multi-decade high and last week’s low (2) was above the
76.4% retracement of the 0.9399-0.8511 range. Upside resistance
targets include the 0.9462/ 0.9687/ 1.0052 levels while downside
support targets include the 0.9280/ 0.9098/ 0.8873 levels.
SCHEDULE
Sunday, 2 March 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A Japan February official reserve assets
2230 Australia February performance of manufacturing index
(49.2)
2330 Australia February TD Securities inflation (0.3% m/m)
2330 Australia February TD Securities inflation (3.9% y/y)
Monday, 3 March 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A UK February HBOS house prices (0.0% m/m)
0030 Australia Q4 company operating profit (-2.1% q/q)
0030 Australia Q4 inventories (1.3%)
0130 Japan January labour cash earnings (-1.9% y/y)
0530 Australia February RBA commodity index SDR (5.2% y/y)
0815 Austria European Central Bank member Liebscher speaks
0830 CH February PMI, manufacturing (61.6)
0850 France February PMI, manufacturing (53.9)
0855 Germany February PMI, manufacturing (54.4)
0900 Eurozone February PMI, manufacturing (52.3)
0900 Italy January producer price index (4.6% y/y)
0930 UK February PMI, manufacturing (50.6)
1000 Eurozone February consumer price index, estimate (3.2%
y/y)
1330 Canada December GDP (0.1% m/m)
1330 Canada Q4 December GDP, annualized (2.9%)
1345 US Philadelphia Fed President Plosser speaks
1400 Finland European Central Bank member Liikanen speaks
1500 US February ISM, manufacturing (50.7)
1500 US February ISM, prices paid (76)
1500 US January construction spending (-1.1% m/m)
1900 US Federal Reserve Governor Kroszner speaks
2350 Japan February monetary base (-0.1% y/y)
Tuesday, 4 March 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0030 Australia January retail sales (0.5%)
0030 Australia Q4 current account balance (-A$ 15.587 billion)
0200 NZ February ANZ commodity prices (-1.4%)
0330 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision
0645 CH February consumer price index (-0.3% m/m)
0645 CH February consumer price index (2.4% y/y)
0645 CH Q4 gross domestic product (0.8% q/q)
0645 CH Q4 gross domestic product (2.9% y/y)
0930 UK February PMI, construction (53.9)
1000 Eurozone January producer price index (0.1% m/m)
1000 Eurozone January producer price index (4.3% y/y)
1000 Eurozone Q4 GDP (0.4% q/q)
1000 Eurozone Q4 GDP (2.3% y/y)
1400 US Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke speaks
1400 US Federal Reserve Governor Mishkin speaks
1400 Canada March Bank of Canada interest rate decision
1800 US Dallas Fed President Fisher speaks
2200 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor
Edey speaks
2230 Australia February performance of services index (54.9)
2350 Japan Q4 capital spending (-1.2%)
Wednesday, 5 March 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0001 UK February Nationwide consumer confidence (81)
0030 Australia Q4 gross domestic product (1.0% q/q)
0030 Australia Q4 gross domestic product (4.3% y/y)
0300 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Debelle
speaks
0850 France February PMI, services (56.6)
0855 Germany February PMI, services (49.2)
0900 Eurozone February PMI, services (52.3)
0930 UK February PMI, services (52.5)
1000 Eurozone January retail sales (-0.1% m/m)
1000 Eurozone January retail sales (2.0% y/y)
1030 UK February BRC shop price index
1200 US MBA mortgage applications (-19.2%)
1230 US February Challenger job cuts (19.1% y/y)
1315 US February ADP employment change (130,000)
1330 US Q4 non-farm productivity
1330 US Q4 unit labour costs (2.1%)
1500 US January factory orders (2.3%)
1500 US February ISM, non-manufacturing (44.6)
1900 US Federal Reserve Beige Book
2000 NZ Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision
2350 Japan Foreign equities and bonds purchases
Thursday, 6 March 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A Japan Bank of Japan interest rate decision
N/A Norway European Central Bank member Weber speaks
N/A Norway Fed Governor Mishkin speaks
N/A France European Central Bank President Trichet speaks
N/A France European Central Bank member Stark speaks
0030 US Cleveland Fed President Pianalto speaks
0030 Australia January trade balance (-A$ 1.936 billion)
0030 Australia January building approvals (-16.0% m/m)
0030 Australia January building approvals (-0.9% y/y)
0500 Japan January leading economic index (45.5%)
0500 Japan January coincident index (70.0%)
0600 Japan February machine tool orders (0.0% y/y)
0645 CH February unemployment rate (2.8%)
0745 France Q4 ILO unemployment rate (8.3%)
1100 Germany January factory orders (-1.7% m/m)
1100 Germany January factory orders (5.6% y/y)
1200 UK Bank of England MPC interest rate decision
1245 Eurozone European Central Bank interest rate decision
1300 US Boston Fed President Rosengren speaks
1330 US Weekly initial jobless claims (373,000)
1330 US Continuing jobless claims (2.807 million)
1330 Canada January building permits (0.4% m/m)
1500 US January pending homes sales (-1.5% m/m)
1500 Canada February Ivey PMI (56.2)
1800 US New York Fed President Geithner speaks
2230 Australia February performance of construction index
(58.3)
Friday, 7 March 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A Germany February wholesale price index
0030 US Boston Fed President Rosengren speaks
0100 US St. Louis Fed President Poole speaks
0500 Brazil Kansas City Fed President Hoenig speaks
0600 Japan Bank of Japan monthly report
0800 France Dallas Fed President Fisher speaks
0900 Eurozone European Central Bank member Constancio speaks
1000 US San Francisco Fed President Yellen speaks
1100 Germany January industrial production (0.8% m/m)
1100 Germany January industrial production (4.1% y/y)
1200 Canada February unemployment rate (5.8%
1200 Canada February net change in employment (46,400)
1330 US February unemployment rate (4.9%)
1330 US February average hourly earnings (0.2% m/m)
1330 US February average hourly earnings (3.7% y/y)
1330 US Federal Reserve Governor Mishkin speaks
2000 US February consumer credit (US$ 4.5 billion)
|
