News
and Media
WEEKLY MARKET RECAP,
WEEK AHEAD, AND SCHEDULE
Mandus Invest SA. | 9, March, 2008 /
Sunday
EURO
The euro appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week
as the single currency tested offers around the $1.5460 level
and was supported around the $1.5145 level. The pair gained
about 170 pips last week. Philly Fed’s Plosser said the Fed
may normalize policy quickly when conditions warrant. Fed
chief Bernanke called on lenders to enact “vigorous solutions”
to counter mortgage foreclosures. The Fed’s Beige Book saw
eight of twelve Fed districts report softening economic activity.
The Fed announce it will increase its TAF liquidity provision
to US$ 100 billion, announced another US$ 100 billion in 28-day
repos, and announced it is in close consultations with central
banks on liquidity provision. San Francisco Fed President
Yellen sees inflation waning while Dallas Fed President Fisher
warned against expecting automatic repeat Fed rate cuts.
The ECB kept its refinancing rate unchanged at 4.0%. Trichet
cited “short-term upward inflation pressures.” The ECB raised
its 2009 inflation forecast to a range of 1.5% to 2.7% and
reduced its GDP growth forecast to 1.7% for 2008. Trichet
said he is paying “extreme attention” to the U.S’s strong
dollar policy.
ECB’s Liebscher said the price of oil is “crucial” to monetary
policy. Ecofin finance ministers stepped-up verbal intervention
against the euro’s rise. ECB’s Weber said the prospect of
lower EMU-15 GDP growth “is not enough reason” to anticipate
weaker inflation pressures.
Data released in the U.S. last week saw February ISM manufacturing
fall to 48.3 from 50.7 with the prices paid sub-index narrowly
lower at 75.5; January construction spending fell 1.7% m/m;
January factory orders fell 2.5% with ex-transportation off
0.4%; ISM non-manufacturing improved to 49.3; ADP February
payrolls evidenced a jobs loss of 23,000; Q4 productivity
increased 1.9%, down from 6.3% in Q3; unit labour costs rose
2.6% in Q4; weekly initial jobless claims rose 29,000 to 2.831
million; January pending home sales were off 19.6% y/y; weekly
initial jobless claims were up 29,000 to 2.831 million; January
pending home sales were off 19.6% y/y; February non-farm payrolls
growth were -63,000 with a cumulative downward revision to
December’s and January’s tallies of 46,000; and the February
unemployment rate was 4.8% with average hourly earnings up
+0.3%.
Data released in the eurozone last week saw EMU-15 HICP unchanged
at 3.2%; EMU-15 February manufacturing PMI printed at 52.8;
EMU-15 January industrial product prices rose 0.8% m/m and
4.9% y/y; EMU-13 Q4 GDP were up 0.4% q/q and 2.2% y/y; the
EMU-15 service sector PMI index improved to 52.3; EMU-15 January
retail sales were up 0.4% m/m and off 0.1% y/y; German January
manufacturing orders fell 1.5% m/m; and German January industrial
output was up 1.8% m/m and 6.9% y/y.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was a
new lifetime high and last week’s low (2) was above the 38.2%
retracement of the 1.4438-1.5460 range. The 1.5520/ 1.5854
levels represent upside resistance targets while the 1.5219/
1.5069/ 1.4979/ 1.4813/ 1.4716/ 1.4631 levels represent downside
support targets.
CNY
The yen appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as
the greenback tested bids around the Y101.40 level and was
capped around the Y104.20 level. The pair lost about 120 pips
last week. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 3.27% on Friday
to close at Y12,782.80. PM Fukuda warned “too sharp forex
moves are not good. I am carefully watching” while MoF’s Tsuda
also verbally intervened. Finance minister Nukaga said the
MoF is watching exchange rates “from now on” while Economy
minister Ota said the yen’s moves were “abnormally rapid.”
The yen came within a few pips of establishing lows not seen
since 1995 and traders are fretting about possible yen-selling
intervention. BoJ kept the overnight call rate unchanged at
0.50% and downgraded its assessment of the economy for March.
Outgoing BoJ boss Fukui cited increasing downside risks. Muto
was formally nominated to replace Fukui and faces tough hearings.
Data released in Japan this week saw the February monetary
base up 0.1% y/y; Q4 combined capital investment by non-financial
companies fell 7.7% y/y; January leading indicators fell to
30.0 with the coincident index lower at 22.2; and Japan’s
foreign reserves eclipsed US$ 1.01 trillion.
In Chinese news, the Chinese yuan appreciated
vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 7.1110
in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 7.1133. Premier
Wen said China will maintain a tight monetary policy in 2008.
PBoC boss Zhou said monetary policy will be fine-tuned at
an appropriate time. PBoC vice boss Yi said the central bank
“will make the exchange rate regime move to a market-based,
floating regime. The flexibility of the exchange rate will
increase in the future.”
Data released in China last week saw CLSA February PMI fall
to 52.8 while CFLP February PMI improved to 53.4; and foreign
reserves totaled US$ 1.59 trillion at the end of February
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 23.6% retracement of the 124.13-101.40 range and last
week’s low (2) was a new multi-year low. Upside resistance
targets remain the 104.52/ 105.62/ 106.18/ 106.75/ 107.45
levels while downside support targets remain the 101.67/ 100.09/
98.00/ 94.41 levels.
GBP
The British pound appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as cable tested offers around the US$ 2.0215 level and
was supported around the $1.9720 level. The pair gained about
265 pips last week. Lloyds TSB reported consumers’ fears about
inflation are worsening. CBI reported business volumes were
at their lowest level since November 2001. BoE’s MPC kept
monetary policy unchanged with May looking like the most likely
time for a rate cut.
Data released in the U.K. last week saw February manufacturing
PMI improved to 51.3 from 50.7 in January; February construction
PMI fell to 52.4; February service sector PMI improved to
54.0; BRC February shop prices were up an annualized 1.3%;
Nationwide consumer confidence fell to 78 in February; REC
February job placements weakened for the first time since
2003; Halifax February house prices were off 0.3% m/m and
up 4.2% y/y; and IDS pay deals were steady at 3.5% in the
three months to February.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 50.0% retracement of the 2.1159-1.9336 range and last
week’s low (2) was above the 38.2% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 2.0248/ 2.0463/
2.0729 levels while downside support targets include the 2.0033/
1.9910/ 1.9767/ 1.9618 levels.
CHF
The Swiss franc appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0135 level
and was capped around the CHF 1.0460 level. The pair lost
about 170 pips last week. SNB’s Hildebrand said central banks
“underestimated the potential impact of the revaluation of
the U.S. mortgage market.” SNB reported it will not participate
in upcoming TAF auctions.
Data released in Switzerland last week saw February PMI fall
to 60.5 from a revised 61.6 in January; Q4 GDP was up 3.6%
y/y; February CPI was up 0.1% m/m and 2.4% y/y; and February
unemployment fell to 2.7% from 2.8%.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 23.6% retracement of the 1.1594-1.0133 range and last
week’s low (2) was a new multi-decade low. Upside resistance
targets include the 1.0478/ 1.0691/ 1.0864/ 1.1010/ levels
while downside support targets include the 1.0104/ 1.0074/
0.9605 levels.
CAD
The Canadian dollar depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the greenback tested offers around the C$ 0.9975
level and was supported around the C$ 0.9735 level. The pair
gained about 35 pips last week. BoC lowered its overnight
target rate by 50bps to 3.50% and said more rate cuts may
be needed. BoC cited the loonie’s strength and deteriorating
U.S. economic conditions as reasons for its rate cut.
Data released in Canada last week saw Q4 GDP rise 0.2% and
2.9% y/y; January building permits fell 2.9%; February new
jobs growth registered 43,300; the February unemployment rate
printed at 5.8%; and February wage growth registered 4.9%
y/y.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was around
the 38.2% retracement of the 1.0378-0.9709 range and last
week’s low (2) was just above the 50.0% retracement of the
0.9063-1.0378 range. Upside resistance targets include the
1.0044/ 1.0122/ 1.0220 levels while downside support targets
include the 0.9867/ 0.9725/ 0.9623/ 0.9569/ 0.9482 levels.
AUD
The Australian dollar depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the Aussie tested bids around the US$ 0.9215
level and was capped around the US$ 0.9420 level. The pair
lost about 30 pips last week. RBA lifted its cash target rate
by 25bps to 7.25%. RBA said recent rate hikes have tightened
credit substantially.
Data released in Australia last week saw TD Securities monthly
inflation gauge rise 0.3% m/m and 4.0% y/y; Q4 inventories
were up 0.7% q/q; the February performance of manufacturing
index improved; the current account balance printed at –A$
19.3 billion in the three months to December; January retail
sales were unchanged m/m; Q4 GDP expanded 0.6% q/q and was
up 3.9% in 2007; the January trade deficit widened to –A$
2.7 billion; and January building approvals were up 1.9% m/m.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 23.6% retracement of the 0.8511-0.9496 range and last
week’s low (2) was above the 38.2% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 0.9399/ 0.9462/
0.9687/ 1.0052 levels while downside support targets include
the 0.9190/ 0.9060/ 0.8992/ 0.8873 levels.
SCHEDULE
Sunday, 9 March 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A NZ February QV house prices (8.9% y/y)
N/A Australia January HIA new home sales (-1.3%)
N/A CH SECO March 2007 economic forecasts
2350 Japan January machine orders (-3.2% m/m)
2350 Japan January machine orders (-3.3% y/y)
2350 Japan February M2+CD money supply (2.1% y/y)
2350 Japan February broad liquidity (3.6% y/y)
2350 Japan February bank lending (1.1% y/y)
Monday, 10 March 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0030 Australia February ANZ job advertisements (1.8%)
0400 NZ Manpower survey (20%)
0400 Australia Manpower survey (20%)
0500 Japan Economy watchers’ survey, current (31.8)
0500 Japan Economy watchers’ survey, outlook (35.8)
0700 Germany January trade balance (€10.8 billion)
0700 Germany January current account (€15.9 billion)
0700 CH Central bankers meet at Bank for International Settlements
0745 France January industrial production (0.7% m/m)
0745 France January industrial production (1.2% y/y)
0745 France January manufacturing production (0.3% m/m)
0745 France January manufacturing production (0.8% y/y)
0900 Italy January industrial production (-4.0% y/y)
0930 Eurozone March investor confidence (4.3)
0930 UK February PPI, input (2.6% m/m)
0930 UK February PPI, output (1.0% m/m)
0930 UK February PPI, core output (0.8% m/m)
0930 UK February PPI, core output (3.1% y/y)
0930 UK January industrial production (-0.1% m/m)
0930 UK January industrial production (0.6% y/y)
0930 UK January manufacturing production (-0.2% m/m)
0930 UK January manufacturing production (0.0% y/y)
1215 Canada February housing starts (222,700)
1400 US January wholesale inventories (1.1%)
2145 NZ Q4 terms of trade index (3.6% q/q)
Tuesday, 11 March 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0001 UK February NIESR GDP estimate (0.5%)
0001 UK February BRC retail sales monitor
0030 Australia January home loans (0.1%)
0030 Australia January investment lending (-3.0%)
0400 Germany European Central Bank member Weber speaks
0400 Germany European Central Bank President Trichet speaks
0900 Eurozone European Central Bank member Constancio speaks
0930 UK January DCLG house prices (9.1% y/y)
1000 Germany March ZEW survey, economic sentiment (-39.5)
1000 Eurozone March ZEW survey, economic sentiment (-41.4)
1000 Eurozone March ZEW survey, current situation (33.7)
1230 US January trade balance (-US$ 58.8 billion)
1230 Canada January international merchandise trade
1230 Canada January new housing price index (0.1% m/m)
1530 UK January leading indicator index (-0.4% m/m)
1530 UK January coincident indicator index (0.1% m/m)
2045 NZ February food prices index (0.4% m/m)
2330 Australia March Westpac consumer confidence
2350 Japan Bank of Japan Policy Board meeting minutes, 14-15
February
2350 Japan Q4 GDP, annualized (0.9%)
2350 Japan Q4 GDP deflator (-1.3% y/y)
2350 Japan February domestic corporate goods price index (0.2%
m/m)
2350 Japan February domestic corporate goods price index (3.0%
y/y)
2350 Japan January current account (Y1.697 trillion)
2350 Japan January trade balance (Y1.013 trillion)
Wednesday, 12 March 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0130 Japan Bank of Japan Policy Board member Noda speaks
0400 Japan February bankruptcies (7.6% y/y)
0500 Japan February consumer confidence (37.5)
0745 France February consumer price index (-0.1% m/m)
0745 France February consumer price index (3.2% y/y)
0745 France February CPI, harmonized (0.0% m/m)
0745 France February CPI, harmonized (3.2% y/y)
0930 UK January visible trade balance (-£7.574 billion)
0930 UK January total trade balance (-£4.723 billion)
1000 CH March ZEW survey, expectations
1000 Eurozone January industrial production (-0.2% m/m)
1000 Eurozone January industrial production (1.3% y/y)
1045 Eurozone European Central Bank member Quaden speaks
1045 Eurozone European Central Bank member Juncker speaks
1100 US March MBA mortgage applications
1230 UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Darling delivers Budget
statement
2145 NZ January retail sales (0.1% m/m)
2145 NZ January retail sales, ex-autos (0.3% m/m)
2300 NZ February PMI (53.3)
2330 Australia February consumer inflation expectations
2350 Japan March foreign equities and bonds investments
Thursday, 13 March 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0030 Australia February employment change (26,800)
0030 Australia February unemployment rate (4.1%)
0330 Japan January industrial production (-2.0% m/m)
0330 Japan January industrial production (2.5% y/y)
0330 Japan January capacity utilization (1.7%)
0400 Japan February Tokyo-area condominium sales (-19.1% y/y)
0745 France January current account (-€2.7 billion)
0745 France Q4 non-farm payrolls (0.4% q/q)
0830 CH Swiss National Bank interest rate announcement
0900 Eurozone March European Central Bank interest rate announcement
0900 Italy February CPI, harmonized (-0.8% m/m)
0900 Italy February CPI, harmonized (3.1% y/y)
1230 US February import price index (1.7% m/m)
1230 US February import price index (13.7% y/y)
1230 US February retail sales (0.3%)
1230 US February retail sales, ex-autos (0.3%)
1230 US March weekly initial jobless claims
1230 US Continuing jobless claims
1230 Canada Q4 capacity utilization rate (82.7%)
1400 US January business inventories (0.6%)
2145 NZ Q4 manufacturing activity (-2.1%)
Friday, 14 March 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0200 NZ February non-resident bond holdings
0700 Germany February consumer price index (2.8% y/y)
0700 Germany February consumer price index, harmonized (2.9%
y/y)
0700 Germany February consumer price index, harmonized (-0.3%
m/m)
0730 France February Bank of France business sentiment (107.0)
0800 Italy Q4 labour costs (2.4% y/y)
1000 Eurozone Q4 labour costs (2.5% y/y)
1000 Eurozone February CPI (-0.4% m/m)
1000 Eurozone February CPI (3.2% y/y)
1000 Eurozone February CPI, core (1.7% y/y)
1230 US February CPI (0.4% m/m)
1230 US February CPI (4.3% y/y)
1230 US February CPI, ex-food and energy (0.3% m/m)
1230 US February CPI, ex-food and energy (2.5% y/y)
1230 Canada Q4 labour productivity (0.2% q/q)
1400 US March University of Michigan consumer sentiment (70.8)
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