News
and Media
WEEKLY MARKET RECAP,
WEEK AHEAD, AND SCHEDULE
Mandus Invest SA. | 30, March, 2008
/ Sunday
EURO
The euro appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week
as the single currency tested offers around the $1.5845 level
and was supported around the $1.5340 level. The pair gained
about 330 pips last week. JPMorgan Chase upped its bid in
its tie-up with Bear Stearns. Goldman Sachs estimates there
are up to US$ 460 billion in credit losses that need to be
written down by banks. Chicago Fed’s Evans said monetary policy
is “accommodative.” Fed Governor Mishkin said a formal inflation
target would work better than “comfort zones.” Primary dealer
credit borrowing totaled US$ 37.023 billion through Wednesday.
The ECB allocated a massive €216 billion in seven-day liquidity
at 4.23% or higher. ECB’s Trichet sees inflation moderating
later in the year and remained hawkish. ECB’s Quaden said
the banks lack confidence absent transparent disclosure about
their credit exposures. Quaden also said “excessive FX volatility”
is a negative risk. ECB’s Stark said the ECB is providing
liquidity for proper market functioning while ECB’s Weber
said the euro has been “excessively volatile” in recent times.
Data released in the U.S. last week saw February existing
home sales climb 2.9%; the Chicago Fed’s National Activity
Index fell to -0.87; March consumer confidence fell to 64.5,
down from 76.4 in February; the S&P/ Case Shiller house
price index fell 11.4% in January; February new home sales
fell 1.8%; February durable goods orders were off 1.7% with
the ex-transportation component off 2.6%; Q4 GDP was up an
annualized 0.6%; headline GDP PCE was up 3.9% with core up
2.5%; weekly initial jobless claims were off 9,000 to 366,000
with continuing jobless claims off 5,000 to 2.845 million;
February personal spending was up 0.1% with personal income
up 0.5%; February headline PCE were up 0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y
with core PCE up 0.1% m/m and 2.0% y/y; and the final March
University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 69.5
from 70.8.
Data released in the eurozone last week saw the German Ifo
March business climate index improved to 104.8; the EMU-15
January current account deficit widened to €10.6 billion;
French and Italian March business sentiment improved; EMU-15
January industrial new orders were up 2.0% m/m and 7.3% y/y;
German April GfK improved to 4.6; and German February import
prices were up 1.1% m/m.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 23.6% retracement of the 1.4309-1.5903 range and last
week’s low (2) was above the 38.2% retracement of the same
range. The 1.5854/ 1.5903/ 1.6072 levels represent upside
resistance targets while the 1.5527/ 1.5393/ 1.5219/ 1.5069/
1.4979 levels represent downside support targets.
CNY
The yen depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as
the greenback tested bids around the Y99.10 level and was
capped around the Y101.05 level. The pair lost about 10 pips
last week. The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 1.71% on Friday
to close at Y12,820.47. BoJ’s Shirakawa said current FX volatility
“may take some time” to work through. Finance chief Nukaga
said the economy appears to be “pausing.” The BoJ Tankan will
be released this week and is likely to evidence a decline
in corporate sentiment. BoJ Deputy Governor Nishimura cited
“upside and downside risks” and BoJ’s Suda suggested rates
won’t come down for now. Markets are pricing in less than
a 10% chance of a 25bps BoJ rate cut at 8-9 April. Nukaga
warned he may discuss FX with foreign counterparts.
Data released in Japan this week saw the March large company
business sentiment index fall to a record low of -9.3 in the
January – March period; nationwide land prices rose for the
second consecutive year in 2007; February supermarket sales
were up 1.9%, the first rise in 26 months; the February corporate
services price index climbed +0.3% m/m and +0.7% y/y; February
exports rose 8.7% y/y; January-February industrial companies’
profits up 16.5%; February core CPI rose 1.0% y/y; the February
unemployment rate rose to 3.9%; February household spending
was unchanged y/y; and February retail sales were up 3.1%
y/y.
In Chinese news, the Chinese yuan appreciated
vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 7.0120
in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 7.0540
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 38.2% retracement of the 114.65-95.71 range and last week’s
low (2) was below the 23.6% retracement of the same range.
Upside resistance targets remain the 100.18/ 102.94/ 104.91/
105.62/ 106.77/ 108.63 levels while downside support targets
remain the 98.00/ 95.04/ 94.41 levels.
GBP
The British pound appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as cable tested offers around the US$ 2.0085 level and
was supported around the $1.9755 level. The pair gained about
100 pips last week. The British media reported the BoE will
follow the ECB’s lead and accept more collateral for repo
funding but not to the extent the Fed has done. BoE chief
King said the central bank is unlikely to be as aggressive
as the Fed in lowering rates and added inflation should be
below 2.0% in 2009. MPC’s Bean said risks to the pound are
“to the downside” while King said the MPC is “not indifferent”
to the value of the pound. MPC’s Blanchflower said the BoE’s
February quarterly inflation report foresaw a gradual depreciation
of the pound.
Data released in the U.K. last week saw the Rightmove March
house price index rise 0.8% m/m; the CBI March retail sales
volume balance improved to +1 from -3 in February; BBA February
new house purchases rose to £5.6 billion; Q4 business investment
was upwardly revised to 1.8%; Nationwide March U.K. house
prices were off 0.6% m/m; GfK consumer confidence weakened
to -19; the and Q4 current account deficit improved to -£8.5
billion.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 38.2% retracement of the 2.1159-1.9336 range and last
week’s low (2) was right around the 23.6% retracement of the
same range. Upside resistance targets include the 2.0145/
2.0248/ 2.0463/ 2.0729 levels while downside support targets
include the 1.9866/ 1.9741/ 1.9618/ 1.9586/ 1.9336 levels.
CHF
The Swiss franc appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 0.9890 level
and was capped around the CHF 1.02505 level. The pair lost
about 130 pips last week. SNB offered repurchase agreements
at lower market rates. SNB’s Roth said the long-term trend
between the euro and franc is “fundamentally stable.”
Data released in Switzerland last week saw the February UBS
consumption indicator print at 2.32, up from 2.15 in January,
and the KOF March economic barometer fell to 1.54 from a revised
1.66 in February
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 38.2% retracement of the 1.1594-0.9647 range and last
week’s low (2) was below the 23.6% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.0106/ 1.0354/
1.0478/ 1.0620 levels while downside support targets include
the 0.9647/ 0.9605/ 0.9535 levels.
CAD
The Canadian dollar appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the greenback tested bids around the C$ 1.0140
level and was capped around the C$ 1.0305 level. The pair
lost about 40 pips last week. Bank of Canada is expected to
ease policy further.
Data released in Canada last week saw January retail sales
up 1.5% m/m and an annualized 7.5% with ex-autos up 1.3% m/m
and 7.7% y/y.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 76.4% retracement of the 1.0378-0.9709 range and last
week’s low (2) was just above the 61.8% retracement of the
same range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.0378/
1.0462/ 1.0794 levels while downside support targets include
the 1.0122/ 1.0044/ 0.9965/ 0.9752 levels.
AUD
The Australian dollar appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.9240
level and was supported around the US$ 0.8975 level. The pair
gained about 140 pips last week. RBA Governor Stevens said
the Australian economy is handling the global economic turmoil
well.
Data released in Australia last week saw job vacancies fall
2.5% in the three months to February.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 38.2% retracement of the 0.8511-0.9496 range and last
week’s low (2) was just below the 50.0% retracement of the
same range. Upside resistance targets include the 0.9263/
0.9399/ 0.9496 levels while downside support targets include
the 0.9120/ 0.9003/ 0.8887/ 0.8744 levels.
SCHEDULE
Sunday, 30 March 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A Australia February HIA new home sales (11.3% m/m)
2145 NZ February building permits (3.3% m/m)
2315 Japan March PMI, manufacturing (50.8)
2330 Australia March TD Securities inflation (0.3% m/m)
2330 Australia March TD Securities inflation (4.0% y/y)
2350 Japan February industrial production (-2.2% m/m)
2350 Japan February industrial production (2.2% y/y)
Monday, 31 March 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0030 Australia February private sector credit (1.1% m/m)
0030 Australia February private sector credit (16.4% y/y)
0130 Japan February labour cash earnings (1.0% y/y)
0200 NZ February M3 money supply (8.9% y/y)
0300 NZ March NBNZ business confidence (-43.9)
0400 Japan March official reserve assets (US$ 1.008 trillion)
0500 Japan February housing starts (-5.7% y/y)
0500 Japan February housing starts, annualized (1.187 million)
0500 Japan February construction orders (-2.5% y/y)
0545 CH March 2008 SECO economic forecasts
0645 France February producer prices (0.5% m/m)
0645 France February producer prices (4.9% y/y)
0800 Finland European Central Bank member Liikanen speaks
0800 Eurozone February M3 money supply (11.5% y/y)
0800 Italy February producer price index (0.4% m/m)
0800 Italy February producer price index (5.2% y/y)
0900 Eurozone March CPI (3.2% y/y)
0900 Eurozone March business climate indicator (0.72)
0900 Eurozone March consumer confidence (-12)
0900 Eurozone March economic confidence (100.1)
0900 Eurozone March industrial confidence (0.0)
0900 Eurozone March services confidence (10.0)
0900 Eurozone European Central Bank member Quaden speaks
0900 Italy March CPI (0.2% m/m)
0900 Italy March CPI (2.9% y/y)
0900 Italy March CPI, harmonized (0.1% m/m)
0900 Italy March CPI, harmonized (3.1% y/y)
0900 UK January index of services
0930 UK March GfK consumer confidence (-17.0)
1230 Canada January GDP (-0.7% m/m)
1345 US March Chicago PMI (44.5)
1600 US San Francisco Fed President Yellen speaks
2230 Australia March AIG performance of manufacturing index
(51.4)
2350 Japan Q1 Tankan, large manufacturers (19)
2350 Japan Q1 Tankan, large manufacturing outlook (15)
2350 Japan Q1 Tankan, non-manufacturing outlook (15)
2350 Japan Q1 Tankan, large capital expenditures (10.5%)
Tuesday, 1 April 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0330 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision
0500 Germany February ILO unemployment rate (7.6%)
0600 Germany February retail sales (1.6% m/m)
0600 Germany February retail sales (0.6% y/y)
0730 CH March PMI (60.5)
0745 Italy March PMI, manufacturing (50.6)
0750 France March PMI, manufacturing (52.0)
0755 Germany March unemployment rate (8.0%)
0755 Germany March unemployment change (-75,000)
0800 Italy February hourly wages (2.0% y/y)
0800 Germany March PMI, manufacturing (54.9)
0800 Eurozone March PMI, manufacturing (52.0)
0830 UK March PMI, manufacturing (51.3)
0900 Eurozone February unemployment rate (7.1%)
1230 Canada February industrial product prices (0.9% m/m)
1230 Canada February raw materials price index (3.4% m/m)
1400 US February construction spending (-1.7% m/m)
1400 US March ISM manufacturing (48.3)
1400 US March ISM, prices paid (75.5)
2350 Japan March monetary base (0.1% y/y)
Wednesday, 2 April 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0645 Eurozone European Central Bank member Noyer speaks
0700 Germany DIW economic growth forecast
0830 UK February M4 money supply (0.3% m/m)
0830 UK February M4 money supply (12.3% y/y)
0830 UK M4 sterling lending (£16.4 billion)
0830 UK February net consumer credit (£900 million)
0830 UK February net lending secured on dwellings (£7.4 billion)
0830 UK February mortgage approvals (74,000)
0830 UK February BSA mortgage approvals (£4.296 billion)
0830 UK March PMI, construction (52.4)
0900 Eurozone February producer price index (0.8% m/m)
0900 Eurozone February producer price index (4.9% y/y)
1100 US MBA mortgage applications
1130 US March Challenger job cuts (-14.2% y/y)
1215 US March ADP employment, change (-23,000)
1330 US Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke testifies
1400 US February factory orders (-2.5%)
2230 Australia March AIG performance of service index (53.2)
2350 Japan Foreign equities and bond purchases
Thursday, 3 April 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0200 NZ March ANZ commodity prices (0.9%)
0400 UK March HBOS house prices (-0.3% m/m)
0400 UK March HBOS house prices (4.2%)
0400 US San Francisco Fed President Yellen speals
0745 Italy March PMI, services (47.2)
0750 France March PMI, services (57.3)
0800 Eurozone March PMI, services (51.7)
0800 Eurozone March PMI, composite (51.9)
0830 UK March PMI, services (54.0)
0900 Eurozone February retail sales (0.4% m/m)
0900 Eurozone February retail sales (-0.1% y/y)
1030 Germany European Central Bank President Trichet speaks
1100 Netherlands European Central Bank President Wellink speaks
1230 US Weekly initial jobless claims (366,000)
1230 US Continuing jobless claims (2.845 million)
1400 US March ISM, non-manufacturing (49.3)
2200 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia policymakers testify
2330 US Federal Reserve Governor Mishkin speaks
Friday, 4 April 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0000 US San Francisco Fed President Yellen speaks
0130 Australia February retail sales (0.0%)
0545 CH March consumer price index (0.1% m/m)
0545 CH March consumer price index (2.4% y/y)
1000 Germany February factory orders (-1.5% m/m)
1000 Germany February factory orders (9.5% y/y)
1100 Canada March unemployment rate (5.8%)
1100 Canada March employment, net change (43,300)
1230 US March unemployment rate (4.8%)
1230 US March non-farm payrolls, change (-63,000)
1230 US March average hourly earnings (0.3% m/m)
1230 US March average hourly earnings (3.7% y/y)
1400 Canada March Ivey PMI (62.0)
1400 Spain European Central Bank member Gonzalez-Paramo speaks
1600 US European Central Bank member Bini-Smaghi speaks
1845 US Federal Reserve Governor Kroszner speaks
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