News
and Media
WEEKLY MARKET RECAP,
WEEK AHEAD, AND SCHEDULE
Mandus Invest SA. | 11, May, 2008 /
Sunday
EURO
The euro appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week
as the single currency tested offers around the $1.5595 level
and was supported around the $1.5285 level. The pair gained
about 30 pips last week. Fed Chairman Bernanke suggested the
housing sector will continue to worsen and supported plans
to limit foreclosures. Kansas City Fed’s Hoenig said the Fed
may need to lift rates. Treasury’s Paulson sees an end to
the market turmoil.
ECB’s Trichet said inflation pressures remain “significant”
and conceded economic growth may slow more than expected.
The ECB’s Lending Survey showed a pullback in lending to the
household and corporate sectors.
Data released in the U.S. last week saw April services PMI
improve to 52.0; Q1 non-farm labour productivity was up 2.2%
with unit labour costs up 2.2%; March pending home sales were
off 1.0% m/m and 20.1% y/y; weekly initial jobless claims
were off 18,000 to 365,000 with continuing claims up 10,000
to 3.02 million; March wholesale inventories were off 0.1%;
and the March trade deficit printed at US$ 58.2 billion.
Data released in the eurozone last week saw May Sentix investor
confidence fall to 3.5; the EMU-15 April PMI service index
improved to 52.0; EMU-15 PPI was up 0.7% m/m and 5.7% y/y;
March EMU-15 retail sales were off 0.4% m/m; March manufacturing
orders were off 0.6% m/m; EMU-15 March retail sales were off
0.4% m/m and 1.6% y/y; German industrial production was off
0.5% m/m in March; and German April wholesale price inflation
was up 0.6% m/m and 6.9% y/y
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 23.6% retracement of the 1.4309-1.6018 range and last
week’s low (2) was above the 50.0% retracement of the same
range. The 1.5615/ 1.5854/ 1.5903/ 1.6072 levels represent
upside resistance targets while the 1.5393/ 1.5219/ 1.5164/
1.5069/ 1.4979 levels represent downside support targets.
CNY
The yen appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as
the greenback tested bids around the Y102.60 level and was
capped around the Y105.60 level. The pair lost about 240 pips
last week. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 2.06% on Friday
to close at Y13,655.34. Finance chief Nukaga called for cooperation
on confronting inflation. Financial markets were largely closed
for the Golden Week holiday. BoJ chief Shirakawa speaks on
Monday.
Data released in Japan this week saw the March leading index
fall to 20 from 54.5; the March coincidence index fell to
33.3; and Japan’s foreign reserves fell to US$ 1.00 trillion
in April.
In Chinese news, the Chinese yuan depreciated vis-a-vis the
U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.9918 in the over-the-counter
market, up from CNY 6.9870. PBoC Chief Zhou said he is monitoring
the “significant hot money” flow into China. A government
think-tank sees Q2 GDP growth around 10.8% y/y with CPI up
7.5%.
Data released in China last week saw the April CFLP manufacturing
PMI survey improve to 59.2; April PPI was up 8.1% y/y; and
the April trade balance was around US$ 16.66 billion.
Technical Outlook
Last week’shigh (1) was just
above the 50.0% retracement of the 114.65-95.71 range and
last week’s low (2) was just below the 38.2% retracement of
the same range. Upside resistance targets remain the 106.77/
107.41/ 108.63 levels while downside support targets remain
the 102.42/ 100.18/ 98.00/ 95.04/ 94.41 levels.
GBP
The British pound depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.9460 level and
was capped around the $1.9785 level. The pair lost about 230
pips last week. NIESR saw GDP growth around 0.4% in the three
months to April.
Data released in the U.K. last week saw April services PMI
fall to 50.4; Nationwide consumer confidence was at a four-year
low; April BRC shop price inflation was up an annualized 1.2%;
March manufacturing output was off 0.5% m/m; REC April wage
growth was at its weakest level since July 2003; house repossessions
were up 9% q/q and an annualized 17%; and U.K. IDS pay deals
reached their highest level since August 1998 in the three
months to April.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 61.8% retracement of the 1.9336-2.0395 range and last
week’s low (2) was below the 76.4% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.9586/ 1.9741/
1.9866/ 1.9991 levels while downside support targets include
the 1.9336/ 1.9117/ 1.8631 levels.
CHF
The Swiss franc appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0390 level
and was capped around the CHF 1.0625 level. The pair lost
about 145 pips last week. KOF sees GDP growth around 2.1%
in 2008.
Data released in Switzerland last week saw April consumer
price inflation up 0.8% m/m and 2.3% y/y and the April unemployment
rate was unchanged at 2.6%.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was right
around the 50.0% retracement of the 1.1594-0.9647 range and
last week’s low (2) was right around the 38.2% retracement
of the same range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.0620/
1.0850/ 1.1134 levels while downside support targets include
the 1.0391/ 1.0106/ 0.9647/ 0.9605/ 0.9535 levels.
CAD
The Canadian dollar appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the greenback tested bids around the C$ 0.9995
level and was capped around the C$ 1.0195 level. The pair
lost about 140 pips last week.
Data released in Canada last week saw March building permits
off 4.5%; April housing starts were off 12.0%; the March international
trade surplus expanded to C$ 5.53 billion from C$ 4.97 billion
in February; and April employment was up 19,000 with the unemployment
rate higher at 6.1%.
Technical Outlook
Last week’shigh (1) was below
the 76.4% retracement of the 1.0378-0.9709 range and last
week’s low (2) was below the 50.0% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.0220/ 1.0378/
1.0462 levels while downside support targets include the 1.0044/
0.9965/ 0.9867/ 0.9752 levels.
AUD
The Australian dollar appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.9505
level and was supported around the US$ 0.9340 level. The pair
gained about 70 pips last week. Treasurer Swan said the government
may reduce its spending to reduce inflation. RBA kept rates
unchanged at 7.25%, as expected. RBA chief Stevens reported
“Should demand not slow as expected or should expectations
of high ongoing inflation begin to affect wage and price setting,
that outlook would need to be reviewed.” RBA lifted its 2008
inflation forecast but said slowing demand will cause inflation
to be in the 2% to 3% target range by the end of 2010.
Data released in Australia last week saw April ANZ job ads
up 3.1% m/m; Q1 house prices were up 1.1% q/q; the TD Securities
April inflation gauge was up 0.5%; the March trade deficit
fell 16% to A$ 2.74 billion; the May employment indicator
fell to -0.005; April unemployment printed at 4.2%;.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was near
a lifetime high and last week’s low (2) was above the 23.6%
retracement of the 0.8511-0.9541 range. Upside resistance
targets include the 0.9496/ 0.9582 levels while downside support
targets include the 0.9263/ 0.9120/ 0.9003/ 0.8887/ 0.8744
levels.
SCHEDULE
Sunday, 11 May 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A NZ April REINZ house prices
2350 Japan April M2+CD money supply (2.2% y/y)
2350 Japan April broad liquidity (3.1% y/y)
2350 Japan April bank lending (1.1% y/y)
Monday, 12 May 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0130 Australia March home loans (-5.9%)
0130 Australia March investment lending (-9.5%)
0130 Australia April NAB business confidence (-4.0)
0130 Australia April NAB business conditions (7.0)
0430 Japan April bankruptcies (8.0% y/y)
0500 Japan April economy watchers’ survey, outlook (38.2)
0500 Japan April economy watchers’ survey, current (36.9)
0600 Japan April machine tool orders (3.3% y/y)
0800 Italy March industrial production (-0.8% y/y)
0830 UK March visible trade balance (-£7.487 billion)
0830 UK April PPI, input (1.8% m/m)
0830 UK April PPI, input (20.6% y/y)
0830 UK April PPI, output (0.9% m/m)
0830 UK April PPI, output (6.2% y/y)
0830 UK April PPI, core output (0.3% m/m)
0830 UK April PPI, core output (3.1% y/y)
1230 Canada March new housing price index (0.3% m/m)
2245 NZ April food prices (0.7% m/m)
2301 UK April BRC retail sales monitor
2301 UK April RICS house price balance
Tuesday, 13 May 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0645 France March current account (-€600 million)
0830 UK April consumer price index (0.4% m/m)
0830 UK April consumer price index (2.5% y/y)
0830 UK April CPI, core (1.2% y/y)
0830 UK April retail price index (0.3% m/m)
0830 UK April retail price index (3.8% y/y)
0830 UK April RPIX (3.5% y/y)
0830 UK March DCLG house prices (6.7% y/y)
1230 US April import price index (2.8% m/m)
1230 US April import price index (14.8% y/y)
1230 US April advance retail sales (0.2%)
1230 US April retail sales, ex-autos (0.1%)
1400 US March business inventories (0.6%)
2350 Japan April domestic corporate goods price index (0.5%
m/m)
2350 Japan April domestic corporate goods price index (3.9%
y/y)
2350 Japan March current account (Y2.467 trillion)
2350 Japan March trade balance (Y1.035 trillion)
2350 Japan April domestic corporate goods price index (0.5%
m/m)
2350 Japan April domestic corporate goods price index (3.9%
y/y)
2350 Japan March current account (Y2.467 trillion)
Wednesday, 14 May 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0030 Australia May Westpac consumer confidence (-1.3%)
0130 Australia Q1 wage cost index (1.1% q/q)
0130 Australia Q1 wage cost index (4.2% y/y)
0640 France April CPI (0.8% m/m)
0640 France April CPI (3.2% y/y)
0640 France April CPI, harmonized (0.8% m/m)
0640 France April CPI, harmonized (3.5% y/y)
0800 Italy April CPI (0.1% m/m)
0800 Italy April CPI (3.3% y/y)
0800 Italy April CPI, harmonized (0.5% m/m)
0800 Italy April CPI, harmonized (3.5% y/y)
0830 UK April claimant count rate (2.5%)
0830 UK April jobless claims change (-1,200)
0830 UK March average earnings, bonus (3.7%)
0830 UK March ILO unemployment rate (5.2%)
0930 UK Bank of England quarterly inflation report
1100 US MBA mortgage applications
1230 US April consumer price index (0.3% m/m)
1230 US April consumer price index (4.0% y/y)
1230 US April CPI, ex-food and energy (0.2% m/m)
1230 US April CPI, ex-food and energy (2.4% y/y)
2245 NZ March retail sales, ex-autos (0.2% m/m)
2350 Japan March machine orders (-12.7% m/m)
2350 Japan March machine orders (2.4% y/y)
Thursday, 15 May 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A South Africa Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor
Debelle speaks
0000 NZ April PMI (48.3)
0030 Australia May consumer inflation expectations (11.2%)
0130 Australia February average weekly wages (0.6% q/q)
0130 Australia February average weekly wages (4.7% y/y)
0400 Japan April Tokyo-area condominium sales (-17.8% y/y)
0545 CH April SECO consumer climate (14.0)
0600 Germany Q1 GDP (0.3% q/q)
0600 Germany Q1 GDP (1.8% y/y)
0600 Germany April CPI (-0.2% m/m)
0600 Germany April CPI (2.4% y/y)
0600 Germany April CPI, harmonized (0.5% m/m)
0600 Germany April CPI, harmonized (2.6% y/y)
0645 France Q1 GDP (0.4% q/q)
0645 France Q1 GDP (2.1% y/y)
0930 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens
speaks
1230 US Weekly initial jobless claims (365,000)
1230 US Continuing jobless claims (3.020 million)
1230 US May Empire State manufacturing index (0.6)
1230 Canada March manufacturing shipments (1.6% m/m)
1300 US March net long-term TIC flows (US$ 72.5 billion)
1300 US March total net TIC flows (US$ 64.1 billion)
1315 US April industrial production (0.3%)
1315 US April capacity utilization (80.5%)
1400 US May Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (-24.9)
1700 US May NAHB housing market index (20.0)
2245 NZ Q1 PPI, input (1.3% q/q)
2245 NZ Q1 PPI, output (1.5% q/q)
2350 Japan Q1 GDP (0.9% q/q)
2350 Japan Q1 GDP, annualized (3.5%)
2350 Japan Q1 GDP deflator (-1.3% y/y)
Friday, 16 May 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0400 Japan April consumer confidence (37.0
0400 Japan March industrial production (-3.1% m/m)
0400 Japan March industrial production (-0.4% y/y)
0430 Japan March capacity utilization (1.8% m/m)
0600 Japan April machine tool orders
0645 France Q1 wages (0.3% q/q)
0715 CH March retail sales (3.3% y/y)
1230 US April housing starts (947,000)
1230 US April building permits (927,000)
1400 US May University of Michigan consumer sentiment (62.6)
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