News
and Media
WEEKLY MARKET RECAP,
WEEK AHEAD, AND SCHEDULE
Mandus Invest SA. | 18, May, 2008 /
Sunday
EURO
The euro appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week
as the single currency tested offers around the $1.5600 figure
and was supported around the $1.5365 level. The pair gained
about 100 pips last week. Chicago Fed’s Evans sees the economy
at a “relatively sluggish pace.” WSJ reported the U.S. has
taken the lead within the G7 of promoting a strong dollar.
Bernanke said financial market conditions are still “far from
normal.” November fed funds futures are pricing in about a
40% chance of a +25bps increase in the fed funds target rate.
Richmond Fed’s Lacker remained hawkish. San Francisco Fed
President Yellen said recent inflation data have been “disappointing”
and it could erode the Fed’s credibility. Greenspan sees house
prices bottoming out by early 2009.
ECB’s Gonzalez-Paramo said liquidity operations have reduced
financial market volatility. ECB’s Noyer said countries’ ongoing
link to the U.S. dollar is imparting inflation. ECB’s Trichet
said policymakers must “preserve the firm anchoring of inflation
expectations” and remain “extraordinarily attentive.” French
finance minister Lagarde said the markets “better understood”
the G7’s statement about exchange rates. Eurogroup’s Juncker
said the euro’s decline has been welcomed. Germany’s DIW lifted
its Q2 GDP forecast.
Data released in the U.S. last week saw April import prices
up +1.8% m/m and +15.4% y/y; April retail sales were off 0.2%
with ex-autos up +0.5%; April headline CPI was up 0.2% m/m
and 3.9% y/y with the core reading up 0.1% m/m and 2.3% y/y;
April foreclosures were up 64% y/y; net long-term TIC flows
rose to US$ 80.4 billion with monthly net TIC flows at –US$
48.2 billion; the New York State Empire manufacturing index
fell to -3.23; weekly initial jobless claims rose 6,000 to
371,000 with continuing jobless claims up 28,000 to 3.06 million;
April industrial production fell 0.7% with capacity utilization
at 79.7%; the Philadelphia Fed May business index improved
to -15.7; April housing starts were up 8.2% and April building
permits were up 4.9%; and the mid-May University of Michigan
consumer sentiment fell to 59.5 from 62.6 in April.
Data released in the eurozone last week saw EMU-15 industrial
output was off 0.2% m/m and up 2.0% y/y; German GDP grew 1.5%
q/q in Q1; EMU-15 GDP was up 0.7% q/q in Q1; final German
April CPI was off 0.2% m/m and up 2.4% y/y; EMU-15 provisional
inflation was up 3.3% y/y; and the EMU-15 trade balance printed
at -€2.3 billion in March.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was just
below the 23.6% retracement of the 1.4309-1.6018 range and
last week’s low (2) was right around the 38.2% retracement
of the same range. The 1.5615/ 1.5854/ 1.5903/ 1.6072 levels
represent upside resistance targets while the 1.5393/ 1.5219/
1.5164/ 1.5069/ 1.4979 levels represent downside support targets.
CNY
The yen depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as
the greenback tested offers around the Y105.40 level and was
supported around the Y102.55 level. The pair gained about
105 pips last week. The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 0.23%
on Friday to close at Y14,219.48. BoJ Governor Shirakawa said
rates need to move higher but reiterated downside economic
risks persist.
Data released in Japan this week saw the economy watchers’
index decline for the first time in three months; April bank
lending was up +1.3%; the April corporate goods price index
rose 3.7%; Japan’s current account surplus fell 12.3% y/y
with the trade surplus off 29.0% y/y; core private sector
machinery orders were off 8.3% m/m; April consumer confidence
fell to 35.2; Q1 GDP was up 0.8% q/q and an annualized 3.3%;
and March revised industrial output was off 3.4% m/m.
In Chinese news, the Chinese yuan appreciated vis-a-vis the
U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.9900 in the over-the-counter
market, down from CNY 6.9918. PBoC lifted reserve requirements
by 50bps effective 20 May. PBoC’s quarterly monetary policy
report foresaw a tighter monetary policy. PBoC’s Su Ning doesn’t
see runaway inflation in China.
Data released in China last week saw April wholesale sales
up 10.3% y/y with April retail sales up 22.0% y/y; the M2
money supply was up 16.94% y/y; industrial value-added output
was up 16.3% between January and April; urban fixed-asset
investment was up 25.7% y/y; and the April properly climate
index was up 1.42% y/.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was right
around the 50.0% retracement of the 114.65-95.71 range and
last week’s low (2) was below the 38.2% retracement of the
same range. Upside resistance targets remain the 106.77/ 107.41/
108.63 levels while downside support targets remain the 102.42/
100.18/ 98.00/ 95.04/ 94.41 levels.
GBP
The British pound appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.9630 level and
was supported around the $1.9365 level. The pair gained about
20 pips last week. BoE’s quarterly inflation report warned
CPI could reach 3.6% this year and its base scenario does
not rule out CPI at or above 4.0%. BoE Governor King said
the U.K. may experience an “odd quarter or two” of negative
economic growth and said the MPC is “facing its biggest challenge
yet.” Chancellor Darling announced a £2.7 billion tax cut.
Banks may swap as much as £90 billion in mortgage-backed securities.
Data released in the U.K. last week saw U.K. producer input
prices rose 2.4% and an annualized 23.0% gain; April output
PPI was up 7.5% y/y; the March trade balance improved to -£7.4
billion; April CPI was up +0.8% m/m and 3.0% y/y; RICS house
prices fell in the three months to April; BRC April retail
sales declined; DCLG March annual house price inflation growth
slowed to 5.2%; CML March mortgage lending remained subdued;
the April claimant count of unemployment was up 7,200; and
Q1 home construction was off an annualized 24%.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 76.4% retracement of the 1.9336-2.0395 range and last
week’s low (2) was right around the 23.6% retracement of the
1.7060-2.1159 range. Upside resistance targets include the
1.9586/ 1.9741/ 1.9866/ 1.9991 levels while downside support
targets include the 1.9336/ 1.9117/ 1.8631 levels.
CHF
The Swiss franc depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as the greenback tested offers around the CHF 1.0600
figure and was supported around the CHF 1.0405 level. The
pair gained about 45 pips last week.
Data released in Switzerland last week saw SECO April consumer
sentiment off to +2 from +14 while March retail sales were
off 2.5% y/y.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was right
around the 50.0% retracement of the 1.1594-0.9647 range and
last week’s low (2) was right around the 38.2% retracement
of the same range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.0620/
1.0850/ 1.1134 levels while downside support targets include
the 1.0391/ 1.0106/ 0.9647/ 0.9605/ 0.9535 levels.
CAD
The Canadian dollar appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the greenback tested bids around the C$ 0.9940
level and was capped around the C$ 1.0105 level. The pair
lost about 50 pips last week.
Data released in Canada last week saw the March new housing
price index rise 0.2% m/m and 6.1% y/y while March manufacturing
shipments were off 1.6% m/m.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was below
the 61.8% retracement of the 1.0378-0.9709 range and last
week’s low (2) was below the 38.2% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.0074/ 1.0220/
1.0378/ 1.0462 levels while downside support targets include
the 0.9965/ 0.9867/ 0.9752 levels..
AUD
The Australian dollar appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.9560
level and was supported around the US$ 0.9290 level. The pair
gained about 100 pips last week.
Data released in Australia last week saw March housing finance
fall 6.1% m/m; NAB April business confidence fell 4 points;
and the Q1 wage cost index up was up 0.9% q/q.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was near
a lifetime high and last week’s low (2) was just below the
23.6% retracement of the 0.8511-0.9559 range. Upside resistance
targets include the 0.9582/ 0.9648/ 0.9920 levels while downside
support targets include the 0.9312/ 0.9263/ 0.9120/ 0.9003/
0.8887 levels.
SCHEDULE
Sunday, 18 May 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
2301 UK May Rightmove house prices (-0.1% m/m)
2301 UK May Rightmove house prices (1.3% y/y)
Monday, 19 May 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A Japan Bank of Japan Policy Board interest rate decision
0000 NZ April performance of services index
0130 Australia April balance of payments imports (1.0% m/m)
0530 Japan April Tokyo department store sales (-0.7% y/y)
0530 Japan April nationwide department sales (-1.2% y/y)
0630 France April Bank of France business sentiment (105.0)
0900 Eurozone March construction output (1.2% m/m)
0900 Eurozone March construction output (4.3% y/y)
1400 US April leading indicators (0.1%0
2350 Japan March tertiary industry index (-1.7% m/m)
Tuesday, 20 May 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0130 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia May board meeting
minutes
0500 Japan March coincident index (33.3%)
0500 Japan March leading economic index (20.0%)
0600 Japan Bank of Japan monthly report
0600 Germany April producer prices (0.7% m/m)
0600 Germany April producer prices (4.2% y/y)
0700 Japan April convenience store sales (-0.6% y/y)
0715 CH April producer and import prices (0.6% m/m)
0715 CH April producer and import prices (3.9% y/y)
0800 Italy March industrial orders (2.0% m/m)
0800 Italy March industrial orders (14.3% y/y)
0800 Italy March industrial sales (0.8% m/m)
0800 Italy March industrial sales (9.0% y/y)
0900 Germany May ZEW survey, current situation (33.2)
0900 Germany May ZEW survey, economic sentiment (-40.7)
0900 Eurozone May ZEW survey, economic sentiment (-44.8)
1230 US April producer price index (1.1% m/m)
1230 US April producer price index (6.9% y/y)
1230 US April producer price index, ex-food and energy (0.2%
m/m)
1230 US April producer price index, ex-food and energy (2.7%
y/y)
1230 Canada March international securities transactions
1230 Canada March wholesale sales (-1.8% m/m)
1300 US Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Kohn speaks
1700 Eurozone European Union’s Alumnia speaks
Wednesday, 21 May 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0030 Australia May Westpac consumer confidence (-1.3%)
0300 NZ April credit card spending (3.5% y/y)
0800 Germany May Ifo, business climate (102.4)
0800 Germany May Ifo, current assessment (108.4)
0800 Germany May Ifo, expectations (96.8)
0830 UK Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting
minutes
0830 UK April public sector net cash requirements (£12.7 billion)
0830 UK April public sector net borrowing (£10.2 billion)
0830 UK April M4 money supply (0.8% m/m)
0830 UK April M4 money supply (11.9% y/y)
0830 UK April M4 sterling lending (£17.4 billion)
0900 CH May ZEW survey, expectations (-71.4)
1100 US MBA mortgage applications (2.9%)
1100 Canada April consumer price index (0.4% m/m)
1100 Canada April consumer price index (1.4% y/y)
1100 Canada April consumer price index, core (0.2% m/m)
1100 Canada April consumer price index, core (1.3% y/y)
1230 Canada April leading indicators (0.0% m/m)
1800 US Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes
2350 Japan April merchandise trade balance (Y1.11 trillion)
2350 Japan Foreign purchases of Japanese equities and bonds
2350 Japan March all-industry activity index (-1.4% m/m)
Thursday, 22 May 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A Japan May monthly economic report
0100 Australia May consumer inflation expectations (4.3%)
0200 NZ Finance minister Cullen delivers 2008 budget
0500 Japan April supermarket sales (1.4% y/y)
0700 Germany European Central Bank member Weber speaks
0730 Italy May consumer confidence (99.8)
0800 Italy March retail sales (0.3% m/m)
0800 Italy March retail sales (2.7 y/y)
0830 UK April retail sales (-0.4% m/m)
0830 UK April retail sales (4.6% y/y)
0830 UK Q1 total business investment (1.8% q/q)
0830 UK Q1 total business investment (1.7% y/y)
0900 Eurozone March industrial new orders (0.6% m/m)
0900 Eurozone March industrial new orders (9.9% y/y)
1000 UK May CBI monthly industrial trends
1230 US Weekly initial jobless claims (371,000)
1230 US Continuing jobless claims (3.060 million)
1230 Canada March retail sales (-0.7% m/m)
1230 Canada March retail sales, ex-autos (-0.3% m/m)
1315 US Federal Reserve Governor Kroszner speaks
1400 US March house price index (0.6% m/m)
1400 US Q1 house price index (0.1% q/q)
2350 Japan Bank of Japan Policy Board meeting minutes (8-9
April)
Friday, 23 May 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0615 CH April trade balance (CHF 1.25 billion)
0645 France April consumer spending (-1.7% m/m)
0645 France April consumer spending (1.2% y/y)
0700 France May PMI, manufacturing (51.1)
0700 France May PMI, services (52.8)
0730 Germany May PMI, manufacturing (53.6)
0730 Germany May PMI, services (54.9)
0800 Italy April trade balance
0800 Italy Q1 2007 and Q1 2008 GDP
0800 Eurozone May PMI, manufacturing (50.7)
0800 Eurozone May PMI, services (52.0)
0830 UK Q1 GDP (0.4% q/q)
0830 UK Q1 GDP (2.5% y/y)
1400 US April existing home sales (4.93 million)
1400 US April existing home sales (-2.0% m/m)
1430 Canada April money supply
|
