News
and Media
WEEKLY MARKET RECAP,
WEEK AHEAD, AND SCHEDULE
Mandus Invest SA. | 04, May, 2008 /
Sunday
EURO
The euro depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week
as the single currency tested bids around the $1.5360 level
and was capped around the $1.5695 level. The pair lost about
215 pips last week. The FOMC reduced the fed funds target
rate by 25bps to 2.00% and said inflation pressures are picking
up. Traders increasingly believe the U.S. economy has turned
the corner towards improvement. The Fed expanded the size
of its Term Auction Facility to US$ 75 billion and upped its
reciprocal swap lines with the ECB and SNB.
German states’ April inflation moderated. The EC reduced
its 2008 GDP forecast to 1.7% and upped its 2008 inflation
forecast to 3.2%. ECB’s Liebscher said policymakers should
prevent inflation with “everything that is necessary” and
Trichet warned against “complacency.”
Data released in the U.S. last week saw April consumer confidence
fall to 62.3 from 65.9 in March; April ISM manufacturing was
unchanged at 48.6; March construction spending fell 1.1% m/m;
March personal spending expanded 0.4% m/m; March personal
income was up 0.3% m/m; core PCE were up 0.2% m/m and 2.1%
y/y; weekly initial jobless claims were up 35,000 to 375,000
with continuing jobless claims up 35,000 to 3.019 million;
Q1 GDP growth came in at an annualized 0.6% with the employment
cost index at 0.7%; ADP April net private sector jobs grew
10,000; April Chicago PMI improved to 48.3; the April non-farm
payrolls tally fell 20,000 while the unemployment rate fell
to 5.0%; April average hourly earnings were up +0.1% m/m and
+3.4% y/y; and March factory orders were up +0.1% m/m and
3.4% y/y.
Data released in the eurozone last week saw the May GkF consumer
climate index improve to 5.9 from 4.8 in April; German negotiated
salaries and wages expanded at their fastest pace in twelve
years, up 3.3% y/y in January; German new machinery, plant
orders were off 5.0% y/y; EMU-15 April provisional inflation
moderated to 3.3%; the European Commission EMU-15 economic
sentiment indicator fell to 97.1; the April German jobless
rate fell 94,000; March wholesale sales were off 1.4% m/m
and 4.6% y/y; EMU-15 March unemployment printed at 7.1%; EMU-15
April final manufacturing PMI printed at 50.7; German March
retail sales were off 0.1% m/m and 6.3% y/y; and German final
April manufacturing PMI printed at 53.6.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 23.6% retracement of the 1.4309-1.6018 range and last
week’s low (2) was around the 38.2% retracement of the same
range. The 1.5615/ 1.5854/ 1.5903/ 1.6072 levels represent
upside resistance targets while the 1.5393/ 1.5219/ 1.5164/
1.5069/ 1.4979 levels represent downside support targets.
CNY
The yen depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last week as
the greenback tested offers around the Y105.25 level and was
supported around the Y103.20 level. The pair gained about
80 pips last week. The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 2.05%
on Friday to close at Y14,049.26. BoJ kept the overnight call
rate unchanged at 0.50% and moved to a neutral policy bias
with Shirakawa pledging flexibility. BoJ downwardly revised
its GDP growth forecast to 1.5%.
Data released in Japan this week saw construction
orders were up 6.4% in March; March housing starts were off
15.6%; March industrial output was off 3.1%; March household
spending fell; the March unemployment rate fell to 3.8%; and
the April monetary base fell 2.8% y/y.
In Chinese news, the Chinese yuan appreciated
vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.9870
in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 7.0010.
Data released in China last week saw March urban unemployment
print at 4.0%.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 50.0% retracement of the 114.65-95.71 range and last week’s
low (2) was above the 38.2% retracement of the same range.
Upside resistance targets remain the 106.77/ 107.41/ 108.63
levels while downside support targets remain the 102.94/ 100.18/
98.00/ 95.04/ 94.41 levels.
GBP
The British pound depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar last
week as cable tested bids around the US$ 1.9625 level and
was capped around the $1.9965 level. The pair lost about 120
pips last week. TSC unanimously said BoE chief King will serve
a second term. King cautioned that inflation may print above
3.0% and said consumer spending may slow further. Halifax
is seeking £4 billion in capitalization. MPC’s Blanchflower
sees the economy weakening “significantly” and said sterling
may decline.
Data released in the U.K. last week saw Hometrack April average
house prices fell 0.9% y/y and 0.6% m/m; Land Registry March
house prices for England and Wales were off 0.4% m/m; the
CBI April high street sales balance fell sharply to -26%;
March total net consumer lending expanding £8.2 billion; BSA
March gross lending fell to £3.6 billion; M4 money supply
growth fell; March mortgage approvals were at all-time lows
since records began; the CIPS April manufacturing PMI declined
while the prices sub-index grew; Q1 construction orders fell
8% q/q and were off 8.0% y/y; GfK April consumer confidence
fell to -24; Nationwide house prices were off 1.0% y/y; and
Halifax April annual house price inflation was off 1.3% m/m.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was right
around the 38.2% retracement of the 1.9336-2.0395 range and
last week’s low (2) was right around the 76.4% retracement
of the same range. Upside resistance targets include the 2.0033/
2.0145/ 2.0463 levels while downside support targets include
the 1.9866/ 1.9741/ 1.9602/ 1.9586/ 1.9336 levels.
CHF
The Swiss franc high (1) was below the 38.2% retracement
of the 1.9336-2.0395 range and last week’s low (2) was above
the 76.4% retracement of the same range. Upside resistance
targets include the 1.9866/ 1.9991/ 2.0033/ 2.0145/ 2.0463
levels while downside support targets include the 1.9602/
1.9586/ 1.9336 levels
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was right
around the 50.0% retracement of the 1.1594-0.9647 range and
last week’s low (2) was below the 38.2% retracement of the
same range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.0620/
1.0850/ 1.1134 levels while downside support targets include
the 1.0391/ 1.0106/ 0.9647/ 0.9605/ 0.9535 levels.
CAD
The Canadian dollar depreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the greenback tested offers around the C$ 1.0235
level and was supported around the C$ 1.0035 level. The pair
gained about 55 pips last week. BoC Governor Carney said Canada’s
robust terms of trade are “appropriately reflected” in the
loonie. Carney added “Our ability to hit our 2% target is
not compromised by inflation in other countries provided we
take it into account and provided we continue to follow a
flexible exchange rate.”
Data released in Canada last week saw the NAB Q1 business
confidence index fell to -4, its lowest level since March
2001; March industrial product prices were up 1.7%; and February
GDP was off 0.2%.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) was above
the 76.4% retracement of the 1.0378-0.9709 range and last
week’s low (2) was around the 50.0% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 1.0220/ 1.0378/
1.0462 levels while downside support targets include the 1.0122/
1.0044/ 0.9965/ 0.9867/ 0.9752 levels.
AUD
The Australian dollar appreciated vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar
last week as the Aussie tested offers around the US$ 0.9470
level and was supported around the US$ 0.9275 level. The pair
gained about 15 pips last week. RBA is likely to keep rates
unchanged on Tuesday.
Data released in Australia last week saw March building approvals
fall 5.7%; March private sector credit rose 0.8% m/m and 14.9%
y/y; and March retail sales were up 0.5%.
Technical Outlook
Last week’s high (1) above
the 23.6% retracement of the 0.8511 - 0.9541 range and last
week’s low (2) was above the 38.2% retracement of the same
range. Upside resistance targets include the 0.9399/ 0.9496/
0.9582 levels while downside support targets include the 0.9263/
0.9120/ 0.9003/ 0.8887/ 0.8744 levels.
SCHEDULE
Sunday, 4 May 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
2245 NZ Q1 all private sector wages (1.1% q/q)
2255 NZ Q1 average hourly earnings (0.9% q/q)
2330 Australia April AIG performance of service index (53.8)
Monday, 5 May 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0030 Australia April TD Securities inflation (0.4% m/m)
0030 Australia April TD Securities inflation (4.0% y/y)
0130 Australia April ANZ job advertisements (-0.7% m/m)
0130 Australia Q1 house price index (3.2% q/q)
0130 Australia Q1 house price index (12.3% y/y)
0300 NZ April ANZ commodity prices (2.0%)
0600 CH Central bankers convene at Bank for International
Settlements
0830 Eurozone EMU-15 May Sentix investor confidence (4.1)
1400 US April ISM non-manufacturing index (49.6)
Tuesday, 6 May 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0030 US Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke speaks
0130 Australia March trade balance (-A$ 3.289 billion)
0430 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision
0545 CH April consumer price index (0.3% m/m)
0545 CH April consumer price index (2.6% y/y)
0645 Spain European Central Bank member Ordonez speaks
0800 Germany April PMI, services (54.6)
0800 Eurozone April PMI, services (51.8)
0830 UK April PMI, services (52.1)
0900 Eurozone EMU-15 March producer price index (0.6% m/m)
0900 Eurozone EMU-15 March producer price index (5.3% y/y)
1230 Canada March building permits (-1.0% m/m)
1400 Canada April Ivey PMI (59.0)
1730 Belgium European Central Bank member Tumpel-Gugerell
speaks
2301 UK April Nationwide consumer confidence (77.0)
2330 Australia April AIG performance of construction index
(48.4)
Wednesday, 7 May 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A Eurozone April wholesale price index (1.6% m/m)
N/A Eurozone April wholesale price index (7.1% y/y)
0130 US Kansas City Fed President Hoenig speaks
0700 Germany European Central Bank member Bini Smaghi speaks
0700 Germany European Central Bank member Stark speaks
0830 UK March industrial production (0.3% m/m)
0830 UK March industrial production (1.3% y/y)
0830 UK March manufacturing production (0.4% m/m)
0830 UK March manufacturing production (1.9% y/y)
0900 Eurozone March retail sales (-0.5% m/m)
0900 Eurozone March retail sales (-0.2% y/y)
0930 UK April BRC shop price index
1000 Germany March factory orders (-0.5% m/m)
1000 Germany March factory orders (9.0% y/y)
1100 US MBA mortgage applications
1230 US Q1 non-farm productivity (1.9%0
1230 US Q1 unit labour costs (2.6%)
1245 US Federal Reserve Governor Kroszner speaks
1400 US March pending home sales (-1.9 m/m)
1430 US European Union’s Alumnia speaks
1900 US March consumer credit (US$ 5.2 billion)
2245 NZ Q1 unemployment rate (1.1% q/q)
2245 NZ Q1 employment change (2.5% y/y)
2301 UK April NIESR GDP estimate (0.5%)
Thursday, 8 May 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
N/A NZ April REINZ house sales (-53.3% y/y)
0130 Australia April employment change (14,800)
0130 Australia April unemployment rate (4.1%)
0545 CH April unemployment rate (2.6%)
0600 Germany March trade balance (€16.9 billion)
0600 Germany March current account (€15.4 billion)
1000 Germany March industrial production (0.4% m/m)
1000 Germany March industrial production (6.1% y/y)
1100 UK Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee interest
rate decision
1145 Eurozone European Central Bank interest rate decision
1215 Canada April housing starts (254,700)
1230 US Weekly initial jobless claims (380,000)
1230 US Continuing jobless claims (3.019 million)
1400 US March wholesale inventories (1.1%)
1630 US Former Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan speaks
1730 US April ICSC chain store sales (-0.5% y/y)
2350 Japan April official reserve assets (US$ 1.015 trillion)
2350 Japan April bonds and equities purchases
Friday, 9 May 2008
all times GMT
(last release in parentheses)
0130 Australia Reserve Bank of Australia quarterly monetary
policy statement
0500 Japan March leading economic index (54.5)
0500 Japan March coincident index (70.0%)
0645 France March industrial production (0.3% m/m)
0645 France March industrial production (2.0% y/y
0645 France March manufacturing production (0.3% m/m)
0645 France March manufacturing production (1.9% y/y)
1100 Canada April unemployment rate (6.0%)
1100 Canada April employment, net change (14,600)
1230 US March trade balance (-US$ 62.3 billion)
1230 Canada March international merchandise trade
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