How
Interest Rate Increases Drive Currency Prices
Fundamentally, if a country raises its interest rates, the currency
of that country will strengthen because the higher interest rates
attract more foreign investors. When foreign investors invest
in U.S. treasuries, they must sell their own currency and buy
U.S. Dollars in order to purchase the bonds. If you believe U.S.
interest rates will continue to rise, you could express that view
by going long U.S. Dollars.
If you believe that the Fed has finished raising rates for the
time being, you could capitalize on that view by buying a currency
with a higher interest rate, or at least the prospect of relatively
higher rates. For example, U.S. rates may be higher than those
of Euroland now but the prospect of higher rates in Euroland,
albeit still lower than the U.S., may drive investors to purchase
Euros.
How
Rising Gold Prices Affect Currencies
It's not hard to understand why we've experienced a run-up in
gold prices lately. In the U.S, they're dealing with the threat
of inflation and a lot of geo-political tension. Historically,
gold is a country-neutral alternative to the U.S. dollar. So given
the inverse relationship between gold and the U.S. Dollar, currency
traders can take advantage of volatility in gold prices in innovative
ways.
For example, if gold breaks
an important price level, one would expect gold to move higher
in coming periods. With this in mind, forex traders would look
to sell dollars and buy Euros, for example, as a proxy for higher
gold prices. Moreover, higher gold prices frequently have a positive
impact on the currencies of major gold producers. For example,
Australia is the world's third largest exporter of gold, and Canada
is the world's third largest producer of gold. Therefore, if you
believe the price of gold will continue to rise you could establish
long positions in Australian Dollar or the Canadian Dollar - or
even position to be long those currencies against other major
countries like the UK or Japan.
Translating
Rising Oil Prices to Currency Trading Opportunities
Equity investors already know that higher oil prices negatively
impact the stock prices of companies that are highly dependent
on oil such as airlines, since more expensive oil means higher
expenses and lower profits for those companies.
In much the same way, a country's
dependency on oil determines how its currency will be impacted
by a change in oil prices. The US's massive foreign dependence
on oil makes the US dollar more sensitive to oil prices than other
countries. Therefore, any sharp increase in oil prices is typically
dollar-negative.
If you believe the
price of oil will continue to increase for the near term, you
could express that viewpoint in the currency markets by once again
favoring commodity-based economies like Australia and Canada or
selling other energy-dependent countries like Japan. |